Richmond vs VCU Odds, Picks and Predictions: Defense Is the Rams' Bread and Butter

The VCU Rams are set to host the Richmond Spiders in Atlantic-10 basketball action on Friday night.

The Rams look to hold onto first place in the Atlantic-10 Conference while the Spiders sit just below .500 in conference play. College basketball odds opened with the Rams as 10-point home faves before shortening to -9.

Here are my best free college basketball betting picks and predictions for Richmond vs. VCU on February 24. 

Richmond vs VCU best odds

Richmond vs VCU picks and predictions

The Richmond Spiders are averaging 80.5 points per game over their last four contests. However, they played some terrible defensive teams during that stretch and that number is inflated by a 107-105 overtime loss to George Washington. Tonight, they are on the road against a lock-down defense in the VCU Rams who have allowed just 59.4 points per game in their last 10 contests. 

The Rams haven't just been dominant in the A-10, but have also been shutting teams down during the non-conference portion of their schedule as well. When they faced Pittsburgh, Memphis, and Vanderbilt in a two-week span at the beginning of the season, they limited those Top-40 offenses to just 64.7 ppg. 

Now they get to face off against a Richmond team that ranks 182nd in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Spiders are just 211th in the country in field goal percentage (44.2 FG%), with that number dropping to 42.2% on the road.

The Spiders also rank near the bottom of the nation in offensive rebounding rate and they play at a very slow pace, which makes it even more likely that they'll go Under their team total of 62.5 tonight. 

My best bet: Richmond team total Under 62.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Richmond vs VCU spread analysis

Virginia Commonwealth is red-hot and has won 16 of its last 19 games while going 9-4 against the spread in its previous 13 contests. 

The Rams are now in first place in the A-10, boasting a 12-3 record and an average scoring margin of plus-9.6 ppg. The Rams have been locking down opponents and rank 25th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

VCU ranks just 174th in adjusted offensive efficiency but has a diverse offense with all five starters averaging more than 9.0 ppg. Point guard Ace Baldwin is the Rams' best player and leads the team in points (12.7), assists (5.7), and steals (2.5) per game. 

Meanwhile, Richmond is coming off an 81-78 win at home against Saint Louis. That said, the Spiders are still 7-8 in conference play and have gone just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. 

I already mentioned that the Spiders have struggled offensively, but they haven't been much better on their own end of the court and rank 142nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

They'll also be without long-time head coach Chris Mooney, who announced last week that he'd hand over the reins to assistant Peter Thomas and undergo heart surgery. 

When these teams clashed last month in Richmond, the Rams won 74-62 and held the Spiders to just 37% shooting from the field. 

Richmond vs VCU Over/Under analysis

Richmond's offense has been heavily reliant on Tyler Burton (19 ppg, 7.7 rpg), as he's the only player averaging double digits in scoring. The Spiders also settle for a lot of attempts from beyond the arc (21st in the country with a 45.3% conversion rate), despite not being particularly efficient from that area of the floor. 

They'll have a tough time generating open looks against a VCU team that holds foes to 46.1% shooting from 2-point range this season and is allowing opponents to shoot just 30.4% from deep over the last three games.

The one thing the Spiders typically do well on offense is limit turnovers... but they'll still likely be forced into mistakes by the Rams, who love to pressure and boast the fourth-best turnover rate in the nation (24.5%). 

That said, the Rams commit plenty of turnovers themselves and sit outside the Top 300 in turnover rate (20.1%). They also shoot poorly from 3-point range and average a modest 70.5 ppg.

With that stingy defense and lackluster offense, the Under has gone 6-2 in the Rams' last eight games. 

Richmond vs VCU betting trend to know

The Spiders are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Richmond vs. VCU.

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