The Maui Invitational tips off on Monday night and the final game on the board is a showdown between the Saint Mary's Gaels and Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Oddsmakers are expecting a close game between these undefeated programs with college basketball betting lines installing the Fighting Irish as slim 1-point favorites for this contest, which will take place in Las Vegas due to travel restrictions in Hawaii.
Here are our best free Saint Mary's vs. Notre Dame picks and predictions for NCAA basketball action on Monday, November 22, with tipoff at 11:30 p.m. ET.
Saint Mary's vs Notre Dame odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
This line opened with the Irish installed as 2-point favorites with the Over/Under at 135. Early money has come in on Saint Mary's and the Under moving the line to Notre Dame -1 and the total to 132. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Saint Mary's vs Notre Dame predictions
Predictions made on 11/22/2021 at 11:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Saint Mary's vs Notre Dame game info
• Location: Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• Date: Monday, November 22, 2021
• Tip-off: 11:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2
Saint Mary's at Notre Dame betting preview
Injuries
Saint Mary's: None.
Notre Dame: Elijah Taylor F (Questionable), Robby Carmody G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Under is 6-1 in the Gaels' last seven neutral site games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Saint Mary's vs. Notre Dame.
Saint Mary's vs Notre Dame picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Saint Mary's is coming off its worst season in more than a decade going 14-10 SU and 4-6 in conference play. That said, the Gaels' WCC schedule was littered with canceled games and four of the contests they did play were against Gonzaga and BYU, which were expected defeats.
They did return their entire rotation from last season so experience and chemistry should not be an issue. They've opened this season with four straight victories (2-2 ATS), albeit against smaller schools such as Prairie View, Texas Southern, Southern Utah, and Bellarmine.
The Irish also went through a tough 2020 season going 11-15, including just 7-11 in ACC play. They have failed to cover spreads of more than 20 points in each of their first two games this season but still walked away with victories, beating CSU-Northridge 68-52 in their season opener before pulling away from High Point in the second half last Tuesday.
Like the Gaels, the Irish returned plenty of starters. And although they lost big man Juwan Durham, they replaced him with graduate transfer Paul Atkinson, who leads the team with 17.5 points while adding 8.5 rebounds per game. They also added shooting guard Blake Wesley, a Top-100 recruit who was lights out in their season opener but disappeared against High Point.
The Gaels finished last season ranked 13th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, but struggled on the offensive end of the floor and that could be an issue again. It's a bit concerning that tiny Bellarmine outshot and outrebounded them last week, and now they'll be taking on a much more talented offensive team with even more size.
The Irish were 21st in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency last season and should be better than the small sample size we've seen so far. Keep in mind that point guard Prentiss Hubb is averaging just 4.0 ppg on 15 percent shooting after putting up 14.6 ppg on 39.2 percent shooting last season. Additionally, power forward Nate Laszewski is averaging 7.0 ppg on 31.6 percent shooting after leading the team with a field goal percentage of 58.9 and averaging 13.3 ppg a year ago.
Expect those proven scorers to find their footing eventually. That offensive ability - along with the strides they seem to have made on defense - should lead to a Notre Dame win and cover tonight.
Prediction: Notre Dame -1 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Both of these schools have played a plethora of underwhelming small schools this season and neither has shown much on the offensive end of the floor.
St. Mary's is shooting just 44.5 percent from the floor and 67.6 percent from the charity stripe, which seems like a continuation of its shooting struggles from last season. The Irish have been even less efficient, connecting on just 41.7 percent of their field goals and ranking outside the Top-300 with a free throw percentage of 61.
Both teams will face their toughest defensive opponent of the season on neutral ground so don't be surprised to see even worse efficiency. These schools have also been playing a plodding pace with the Irish ranking 283rd and the Gaels ranking 321st in the country in adjusted tempo, according to KenPom.
Expect a slower-paced defensive battle from both sides in this one and take the Under.
Prediction: Under 132 (-110)
Best bet
The best number for hitting the Under disappeared in a hurry, but it still seems like the best play even after dropping to 132.
Both of these teams have shot the ball very poorly to start the year, and while that's a bit unexpected for Notre Dame, it's no surprise for a Gaels squad that ranked 267th in the country in true shooting percentage last season.
That said, the Gaels are always a tough defensive team under Randy Bennett and they play at a snail's pace. With the Under going 6-1 in the Gaels' last seven neutral site games, and the Under also cashing in 14 of Notre Dame's previous 20 contests as a neutral-site favorite, we're backing the Under tonight.
Pick: Under 132 (-110)
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