Saint Mary's vs Gonzaga Picks and Predictions: Gaels Defense Bitten by Bulldogs

A critical meeting in the West Coast Conference goes down between ranked opponents Saturday night, as the No. 2 ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs host the No. 22 Saint Mary’s Gaels. 

It’s the first meeting between these two schools this season. Both are routinely in the top two in standings in the WCC, with Gonzaga typically maintaining the upper hand.

Will Gonzaga’s nation-best 65-game winning streak at home continue Saturday night?

Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for the Saint Mary’s Gaels and Gonzaga Bulldogs tonight, February 12, to find out.

Saint Mary's vs Gonzaga odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Gonzaga is the heavy favorite, opening -16.5 and sitting at -16 across most books as of the time of this writing. The total took some early money to the Under, dropping from 148.5 at open to 147.5 at current.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Saint Mary's vs Gonzaga predictions

• Prediction: Gonzaga -16 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 147.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Gonzaga -16 (-110)

Predictions made on 2/12/2022 at 1:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Saint Mary's vs Gonzaga game info

• Location: McCarthey Athletic Center, Spokane, WA
• Date: Saturday, February 12, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS

Saint Mary's at Gonzaga betting preview

Injuries

Saint Mary's: No injuries to report.
Gonzaga: Kaden Perry F (Out), Dominick Harris G (Out).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these two schools. Find more NCAA betting trends for Saint Mary's vs. Gonzaga.

Saint Mary's vs Gonzaga picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Gonzaga is firmly entrenched in the conversion for the best team in the country. The Zags are the No. 2 ranked team nationally but the No. 1 team in KenPom. The Bulldogs are 20-2 on the season and have won 13 straight games heading into this contest.

Saint Mary’s is typically not an easy out. The Gaels are routinely amongst the top of the WCC standings, a spot they have returned to this season after a disappointing campaign a season ago. 

Randy Bennett’s squad likes to slow the game down to a crawl and rely on a stingy defense to stifle opponents. The Gaels allow only 59.1 points per game, the 11th-best mark nationally. They grade out well in KenPom, too, checking in at No. 18 in defensive efficiency while ranking No. 332 in tempo.

That defense will be put to the test on the road against a Gonzaga team averaging an absurd 90.8 points per game, the highest mark in the nation. Seven-footer Chet Holmgren is a full-fledged unicorn that WCC opponents have proved utterly incapable of slowing down. Holmgren is averaging 14.6 points, 9.1 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 3.3 blocks per game. He’s even cashing in consistently from long range, hitting 1.5 triples per game while shooting them at a 46.5% clip.

We expect the Gaels to struggle to match this incredible Gonzaga offense. Saint Mary’s will have a truly difficult time slowing this game down to a crawl while being at a severe athleticism disadvantage and playing on the road. There’s a reason the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these teams. 

Randy Bennett has coached some good Gaels teams before that are sound defensively, but they’ve still allowed 84 points per game in the last five meetings against Gonzaga. The Zags should be able to overwhelm the Gaels in this spot. Gonzaga’s average winning margin in WCC games is over 30 points, and we expect another comfortable victory Saturday night.

Prediction: Gonzaga -16 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

We get it, Saint Mary’s has a good defense. The Gaels’ analytical profile paints them as a team that will be able to slow down this potent Gonzaga offense, but, we know that’s simply unlikely to happen.

Saint Mary’s hasn’t played a team of Gonzaga’s stature this year, and therefore we believe there is some slight value in the Over. Gonzaga has athleticism and quality that the Gaels simply don’t see more than twice a year.

In the last five meetings between these schools, they’ve combined for over 146 points in four of them. Gonzaga will score in bunches at home, and the pace-up environment will allow the Gaels to get their points on the scoreboard as well. 

Despite Saint Mary’s reputation as a defense-first team, the Over is 7-1-1 in the Gaels’ last 9 games overall and 4-1 in their last 5 road games. 

Prediction: Over 147.5 (-110)

Best bet

Both teams have been profitable this season. Saint Mary’s is 16-8 ATS on the season while Gonzaga is 13-8-1.

Gonzaga has the longest home winning streak in the nation at 65 and has won 27 straight conference games by double digits. Looks for the Bulldogs to prove a point as their athleticism, size, and speed overwhelm the Gaels.

Pick: Gonzaga -16 (-110)

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