Saint Mary's vs Gonzaga Odds, Picks and Predictions: West Coast Supremacy On the Line in Spokane

No. 12 Gonzaga hosts No. 15 Saint Mary’s with revenge on its mind.

It’s a monumental meeting between two Top-15 teams out west, as the WCC regular season championship is essentially on the line. 

This will be the Bulldogs’ biggest game of the season, as they need a win to clinch a share of the regular season conference championship.

The Gaels have already gotten the best of the Bulldogs once, establishing themselves at the top of the WCC for now. A sweep of the two regular-season meetings with Gonzaga would put Randy Bennett’s squad in a tremendous position to capture the regular-season championship.

Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for the Saint Mary’s Gaels and Gonzaga Bulldogs on Saturday, February 25 below.

Saint Mary's vs Gonzaga best odds

Saint Mary's vs Gonzaga picks and predictions

The first time these teams met, Saint Mary’s held on for a 78-70 overtime win at home on February 4. Drew Timme led Gonzaga with 23 points but only one other starter managed double figures — Julian Strawther with 10. 

Saint Mary’s freshman guard Aidan Mahaney was bottled up for most of the game but went on a scorcher to end the game with 18 points that pushed the Gaels across the finish line. 

The Gaels would lose their next game against Loyola Marymount in overtime before rattling off four straight victories. They check in eighth overall in KenPom — 40th in adjusted offensive efficiency and sixth in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

Gonzaga has rattled off five straight victories since the loss in Moraga. The offense has been on an absolute heater, scoring at least 97 points in all but one of its last five contests — an 88-81 victory over a BYU team sporting a Top-40 defense. 

Mark Few’s squad ranks 13th overall in KenPom — first in offensive efficiency but just 86th in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

The Bulldogs are 12-1 straight up at home this season. While they have struggled to match expectations in the betting market overall this season, with an ugly 10-17-1 ATS record, they’ve managed to stay slightly profitable at 6-5-1 ATS at home. 

Saint Mary’s has similarly fared much better at home (9-6-2 ATS) than on the road (3-4 ATS) this year. When facing teams above .500, the Gaels are just 1-3 ATS in away games. 

There’s a long history between these two schools, and the past few seasons have shown us that the home team tends to dominate (6-0-2 ATS in the last eight meetings). The favorite is 3-1-2 ATS in the last six meetings. 

The spread opened Gonzaga -1 before quickly moving to -4. I’m in agreement with that line movement and wouldn’t be surprised if it heads out a little further. 

The Bulldogs haven’t matched their outlandish expectations this season, but this is still a terrific team with the best offense in the country. If anyone can solve this tough Gaels defense, it’s the Bulldogs. 

This is Gonzaga’s game to lose at home. I’d back the Bulldogs up to -5.5.

My best bet: Gonzaga -4 (-110 at BetRivers)

Saint Mary's vs Gonzaga spread analysis

One trend that folks looking to fade Gonzaga might point out is that the Bulldogs are just 10-22-2 ATS in their last 34 games overall. This team has had tremendous expectations heaped on them, and they haven’t been able to meet them as of late. 

Still, Gonzaga has been a good bet at home, going 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games as Few’s squad appears to have finally found a groove. 

Drew Timme leads the charge with 21.3 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. He’s also second on the team with 3.2 assists, a testament to how crucial he is to this lethal offense. 

One knock on this team has been that it hasn’t had a reliable secondary scorer next to Timme. While that may have been true at points earlier this season, Strawther is averaging 15.6 ppg this season and has been on fire lately. He’s averaging 24.8 ppg across his last four games and has emerged as a nightly threat to explode in the box score. 

Gonzaga has too much firepower for Saint Mary’s in this spot. 

Saint Mary's vs Gonzaga Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 141.5 before quickly jumping to 143. 

Gonzaga’s potent offense has led the way to a 17-11 mark to the Over this season. The Bulldogs rank first both in points per game (87.8) and field goal shooting (52.6%). They also happen to be lethal from behind the arc, connecting on 37.9% of their attempts from downtown to rank 20th nationally. They’ve cashed the Over in six straight games overall and are 8-2 to the Over in their last 10 home games. 

Saint Mary’s defense is no joke, ranking fifth in points per game (58.7), 22nd in field goal defense (40.3%), and 79th in 3-point defense (32.1%). 

The Gaels play at a very methodical pace when they have the ball, ranking 359th in adjusted tempo (KenPom). The Bulldogs are the complete opposite at 40th in adjusted tempo, and typically the home team has the edge in being able to establish its pace. 

Saint Mary’s looks to get the ball inside when it has the ball, ranking third in near-proximity attempts per 100 trips up the court (Haslemetrics). Gonzaga has shown a weakness in defending the paint, ranking 203rd in near-proximity defense. 

I like the Over in this spot and would play it up to 145. Gonzaga is a wagon on offense and will be able to find points no matter the matchup, especially at home. 

Saint Mary’s plays at a slow pace but did manage to shoot nearly 46% in the first matchup and should find more success inside the paint in the rematch. 

Saint Mary's vs Gonzaga betting trend to know

The home team is 6-0-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two schools. Find more college basketball betting trends for Saint Mary's vs. Gonzaga.

Saint Mary's vs Gonzaga game info

Saint Mary's vs Gonzaga key injuries

Pages related to this topic