The first round of the NIT continues when the Samford Bulldogs travel to face the George Mason Patriots tonight.
Samford features a high-paced attack that shoots early and often from long range, but struggles defensively. George Mason has an elite defense and likes to grind games to a halt, boasting a 9-4 record in close games this season.
My Samford vs George Mason predictions break down why the Patriots will find themselves at home from the charity stripe. Read more in my college basketball picks for Wednesday, March 19.
Who will win Samford vs George Mason?
Samford’s resume this season came at the behest of a lot of bad teams. The Bulldogs went 12-0 against Quad-4 opponents, but just 5-6 against Quad-3 and 3-2 against Quad-2 teams.
George Mason relies on a tough defense and boasts an elite perimeter defender in Jared Billups. He will prevent Trey Fort from finding open looks from deep, and the Patriots will use second-chance opportunities and free throws to get the win.
Samford vs George Mason prediction
My best bet: George Mason -7.5 (-110 at bet365)
In postseason play, foul trouble can end a team’s chances to move on. All it takes is one key player having to sit early to shift the outcome of a contest. It also can allow an offense to get easy points and stretch out a lead.
For the Samford Bulldogs, fouls have been a real problem on the defensive end. With a defense that ranks 328th in defensive rebound rate and 290th in eFG%, giving up a bunch of freebies further compounds issues.
In Samford’s 108-100 loss to UNC Greensboro during the regular season, four different players finished the game with at least four fouls, as the Spartans attempted 41 free throws. Furman attempted 27 free throws in an 80-72 win, making 23, and then went 20-of-29 in a 17-point SoCon Tournament win.
But perhaps the game that best replicates what we’ll see was Samford’s 66-59 loss to East Tennessee State. The Buccaneers play a similar pace to the George Mason Patriots, and they had a red carpet to the free throw line — finishing with a 51.9% free throw rate. Had they gone better than 50% from the line, odds are they would’ve won by double-figures.
Those foul issues have been an even bigger problem down the stretch. Each of Samford’s last three opponents have posted a FT rate north of 59%, including a 70.7 mark posted by UNC Greensboro.
Samford’s last four opponents have also posted eFG% marks of at least 57%, with Furman’s 76.5% showing why that game was a blowout. Making matters worse, six of Samford’s last seven foes have also made at least 57% of their attempts inside the arc, with four of those teams hitting at better than 60%.
George Mason ranks 16th on the season in FT rate, getting to the line on nearly 42% of possessions. For an offense that isn’t elite at scoring, that’s a major boost. That’s especially true given the very slow pace of play at which the Patriots operate.
Defensively, they’re elite. The Patriots are sixth in 2-pt% against, 17th in 3-pt%, and Top 5 in eFG%. They force turnovers at a solid clip, and won’t allow a ton of open looks to a Samford team that thrives on the outside shot.
I expect George Mason to dictate the pace of play, limit Samford’s ability to get transition 3-point shots, and get to the foul line early and often. This will lead to the Patriots getting easy offense and winning by 9+ points.
Samford vs George Mason same-game parlay (SGP)
George Mason -7.5
Under 149
George Mason 1H team total Under 36.5
George Mason averages just 32.7 points per game before halftime and allows just under 30 points per game before the break. Even at their high pace of play, the Bulldogs only allow opponents to score 37.4 points per contest in the first half. I don’t see the Patriots getting to a team total of 37 with how slowly they play and how little they fire from deep.
Seven of George Mason’s last nine games have failed to even reach 140 points, and the aforementioned Samford games against the slow-paced ETSU Buccaneers both ended at 125. This pace will be fairly slowed down, and the number is too high.
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Samford vs George Mason odds
Samford vs George Mason live odds
Samford vs George Mason opening odds
- Spread: Samford +7 (-110) | George Mason -7 (-110)
- Moneyline: Samford +260 | George Mason -320
- Total: Over 142.5 (-110) | Under 142.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Samford vs George Mason betting trend to know
George Mason has successfully covered the spread in all of its last three games (+3.00 Units / 91% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Samford vs. George Mason.
How to watch Samford vs George Mason
| Location | EagleBank Arena, Fairfax, VA |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-19-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Samford vs George Mason key injuries
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