San Diego State vs Gonzaga Odds, Picks and Predictions: Defense First in Spokane

There’s a marquee matchup out west on Friday night as the San Diego State Aztecs (10-2) take on the No. 13 Gonzaga Bulldogs (9-3) at The Kennel.

The Aztecs lost a lot of last year’s team that made it to the National Championship game, but not enough that their expectations have been significantly altered. This is still one of the best programs in the country, winning at least 20 games in 17 of the last 18 years. 

The Bulldogs have taken a slight step back this year with a decreased level of talent, but Mark Few and his team will seemingly always be near the top of the sport. 

Looking at college basketball odds, Gonzaga is a 6.5-point favorite while the total resides at 148. 

I’m eyeing one side of the total with my best bet for this fascinating matchup between two elite programs. Check out what I’ve selected as my best bet and stay tuned for my full college basketball picks and predictions for San Diego State vs. Gonzaga on Friday, December 29.

San Diego State vs Gonzaga best odds

San Diego State vs Gonzaga picks and predictions

Brian Dutcher didn’t expect his team to take a step back after last year’s National Championship game appearance. There are a few new faces, but the biggest leader of this year’s team has been a vastly improved returner. 

Senior forward Jaedon LeDee has taken his game to the next level, putting himself in the conversation for National Player of the Year by averaging 21.6 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. The physical specimen has dominated opponents and always gives the San Diego State Aztecs a bonafide threat in the paint. 

It’ll therefore be fascinating to see how things play out on Friday night against the Gonzaga Bulldogs, a team that has had better post-play over the past decade-plus than nearly any other team in America. This year’s crop of trees includes three players averaging double figures — Wyoming transfer Graham Ike (14.1 PPG, 7.9 RPG), Anton Watson (14.1 PPG, 7.8 RPG), and Braden Huff (11.3 PPG, 4.5 RPG). 

The fierce battle in the paint ensures this will be a hotly-contest game between two teams that have done a whole lot of winning in recent years. Since the start of the 2019-20 season, Gonzaga has the most wins of any team in the country while San Diego State ranks third. 

The Aztecs regularly feature an elite defense and that’s the case again this season. Reigning Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year Lamont Butler leads the way for a unit that ranks 20th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. 

After a falloff last season, Gonzaga’s defense is back playing at a strong level. The Zags rank 25th in adjusted defensive efficiency while holding opponents to just 38.2% shooting from the field, which is 19th-best nationally. Slowing down LeDee is paramount in this matchup and the Zags have the size to do just that. Few’s squad walls off the rim, ranking 36th in near-proximity field goal attempt rate (per Haslametrics), and is limiting opponents to just 42.8% shooting on two-point field goal attempts. 

Losing Eastern Washington transfer Steele Venters before the season started had a major impact on two facets — shooting and depth. The Zags are converting at just 32% from behind the arc and have a shallow rotation of just seven players. Finding easy looks will be difficult against this suffocating Aztecs defense, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Few’s squad lay off the gas pedal to avoid his paper-thin rotation from getting into a 40-minute track meet with an athletic opponent. 

Dutcher’s squad isn’t usually one to push the pace, ranking just 248th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metrics. Both defenses have been playing at a top-25 level and I’ll bet on this one staying Under the total. 

My best bet: Under 148.5 (-105 at DraftKings) Live bet promo available

San Diego State vs Gonzaga same-game parlay

Under 148.5

San Diego State +7

Jaedon LeDee Over 7.5 rebounds

+500 at DraftKings

Here’s a three-leg SGP featuring my best bet on the Under combined with the Aztecs against the spread and Aztecs big man Jaedon LeDee to go Over his rebounds prop of 7.5. 

If this game is of the lower-scoring variety as I project, that’d greatly benefit Dutcher’s side. The Aztecs want to make this one a rock fight and they very well may be able to do that as the Zags have been struggling with their shooting from range and are playing a shallow rotation that makes it difficult to truly push the tempo — as Few’s offenses are wont to do when they're at their best — against elite opponents. 

The Aztecs have allowed over 70 points just four times this season and once since November 19. The Zags, meanwhile, have played a few elite teams and have had challenges, falling to both Purdue and UConn and beating a down UCLA team by four points. All three contests went Under the total.

As for LeDee, I expect him to be relied upon heavily in this matchup. That’s usually the case, and it should be obvious that he’s the focal point of the team here in a matchup where his services will be of great import. He’s snared at least eight rebounds in seven of 11 games this season and this number is lined two rebounds below his season-long average, which I think is an overcorrection for the opponent. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

San Diego State vs Gonzaga spread and Over/Under analysis

Glancing at college basketball odds, the Zags can be found between -6.5 and -7 depending on the book while the total ranges from 147.5 to 148.5. 

Neither team has been particularly adept at covering spreads — the Aztecs are 3-7 ATS while the Bulldogs are just 4-7 ATS. Gonzaga has failed to meet expectations lately, going 0-4 ATS in its last four games. 

Few’s squad is 0-3 ATS in its three most anticipated matchups of the year against stellar defenses. First, the Zags fell 73-63 as 5-point underdogs to No.1 Purdue. Then, they won 69-65 over UCLA but narrowly fell short of the -4.5 spread — which is a bit alarming looking back, as the Bruins have since fallen off the tracks. Finally, the Zags fell 76-63 as 3.5-point underdogs against mighty UConn in a game that was never really in doubt. 

My takeaway from those games is that all three went Under the total in lower-scoring games where Gonzaga’s offense failed to meet expectations against a tougher opponent. This has me inclined to eye both the Under and the underdog. 

These teams have met four times in the past, splitting the contests with two wins apiece. 

San Diego State vs Gonzaga betting trend to know

San Diego State has hit the game total Under in 21 of their last 36 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for San Diego State vs Gonzaga.

San Diego State vs Gonzaga game info

San Diego State vs Gonzaga key injuries

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