Two of the top contenders in the American Athletic Conference will clash on Sunday afternoon, as the SMU Mustangs take on the Memphis Tigers in Bluff City.
The Mustangs have won four straight, including their conference opener over Charlotte at home on Tuesday. The Tigers are even hotter, having won seven straight. Will the Mustangs be able to go on the road, cement themselves as conference contenders, and cover in the college basketball odds this week?
Here are our free college basketball picks and predictions for SMU vs. Memphis at FedExForum on Sunday, January 7.
SMU vs Memphis best odds
SMU vs Memphis picks and predictions
The Memphis Tigers have won each of the last three meetings with the SMU Mustangs dating back to March of 2022. However, the teams have split the last 10 meetings with five wins each. This will be the third consecutive matchup between these two in which the Tigers are favored by more than six points.
The Mustangs had a tumultuous start to the season with home losses to Texas A&M and Dayton, a neutral site loss to Wisconsin, and a road loss to Arizona State. However, an upset victory at Florida State seems to have flipped a switch for this Mustangs squad, and now they come into this matchup full of confidence.
SMU’s biggest strength is their ability to defend. They rank 13th in the country allowing only 61.6 points per game. Teams shoot only 36.2% from the field and 26.1% from downtown against the Mustangs. That ranks second and sixth in the nation, respectively.
One big reason for their great defense is their ability to protect the rim. The Mustangs rank 25th nationally with 5.1 blocks per game. The big question in this game is: can they continue to play great defense against a Memphis team that thrives at getting to and making their free throws? The Tigers rank 44th in fouls drawn and 32nd in free throws attempted.
Memphis Forward David Jones will be the key for the Tigers to overcome this tough defense. He averages 20.9 points per game and 7.4 free throw attempts. In the Tigers’ two losses, Jones was held to only three total free throw attempts and 35 total points between the two contests.
Only Texas A&M and Arizona State managed to break the 70-point mark against these Mustangs. Meanwhile, only Villanova managed to hold this Tigers squad below that mark. Ultimately, I like SMU to control the style of play and limit Jones and the Tigers from getting to the free throw line. The Mustangs will get the cover even if they are unable to pull off the upset.
My best bet: SMU +7 (-108 at DraftKings)
SMU vs Memphis same-game parlay
SMU +7
Under 149
Memphis TT Under 78.5
With very little in terms of player props available at time of writing, we will keep it simple with our same-game parlay.
Starting with the spread, we will combine it with a pick on the total. If SMU is going to cover this spread, they will need to muck up the game a bit. Even in the two games in which they allowed the opponent to surpass 70 points this year, the final totals were 145 and 150, respectively.
Finally, we will add the team total for Memphis to go Under. Only Texas A&M have scored 79 points against this SMU squad and the Tigers have been held below that number seven times this season. This includes three of their past four games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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SMU vs Memphis spread and Over/Under analysis
The Mustangs are an impressive 8-4-1 against the spread this season and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Tigers are 6-8 ATS this season and 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games. The Tigers are not a great 3-point shooting team and do not get great ball movement. This will be a major problem against an excellent defense.
The Mustangs rank 223rd in adjusted tempo in KenPom rankings and 24th in adjusted defense. They also rank 255th in possessions per game. Unless David Jones can shoot lights-out over a tight defense, it will be tough for Memphis to get enough possessions to push this total Over.
SMU has played 13 games this season and only three have gone Over the total. Of those three, only two went past this total of 149. Memphis has had four games go Under this season and all four were well below this total.
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SMU vs Memphis betting trend to know
Seven of the past 10 meetings between these two teams have gone Under the total. Find more college basketball betting trends for SMU vs. Memphis.
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SMU vs Memphis game info
| Location: | FedExForum, Memphis, TN |
| Date: | Sunday, January 7, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 5:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
SMU vs Memphis key injuries
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