Plenty of stakes are at play as Memphis welcomes South Florida to town for the regular season finale.
Memphis will look to clinch the AAC regular season title with a win and continue to build upon a strong March Madness seed. For South Florida, it's just about playing spoiler and hoping to snap a three-game losing streak and my South Florida vs. Memphis predictions like them to put up an admirable fight here.
Read on for my free college basketball picks for Friday, March 7th.
South Florida vs Memphis prediction
My best bet
South Florida +12.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Memphis Tigers will probably be one of the most challenging teams in the NCAA Tournament for me to pin down.
The range of outcomes for the Tigers is wide. And the resume they have necessitates that exact logic. Memphis has wins over teams dubbed Final Four darling sleepers, such as Clemson, Missouri, and Michigan State, and a nice win over Connecticut. The flip side? Two Quad 3 losses to Temple and Arkansas State. Otherwise known as lousy basketball teams. I saw this to highlight two things: the general inconsistency of the program and the tendency to play down to their opponent. I'll grab the points with the South Florida Bulls tonight for my best bet.
Of course, there's more at play here than just the Tigers' inconsistencies. My projection of 10.5 shows value in the current number, and there's a reason for that.
These two teams played earlier this season, and Memphis got a 15-point win. A big oddity in that matchup was just how many possessions were played. A whooping 78. It was the highest of the year for Memphis in conference play and the second highest overall. There was a clear interest from the Tigers to push the pace and exploit a poor transition defense. They did it well. It's unlikely that this Bulls team will allow that to happen. For all of the issues South Florida has had this season, they've typically been able to force their play style on opponents. I'm banking on them having better luck doing that today and forcing Memphis into a half-court game. When that happens, South Florida can have some success.
As you might expect from a Penny Hardaway-coached team, a big part of the offense is simply isolation and making plays off the dribble with the talented backcourt of PJ Haggerty and Tyrese Hunter. Plays defined as "dribble jumpers" are run at a frequency that places them in the 70th percentile, and they score on them at a decent enough clip. Even though South Florida hasn't had great defensive numbers this season, they have capable individual defenders who can stay in front of their opponent. That's why they've held opponents to just .82 points per possession on the aforementioned "dribble jumpers." That's above the national average and gives me confidence in this spot.
The capacity for South Florida to muddy this up some is high. Considering that, a double-digit number is too high to cover. When the Memphis offense gets bogged down, it tends to make more mistakes. I suspect we'll see some of that today before the Tigers pull away late, but not enough to cover the number.
South Florida vs Memphis same-game parlay (SGP)
South Florida +12.5
Under 151.5
Since I spent the best bet section mainly expanding on why South Florida can slow down the Memphis offense, pairing the Under with our best bet feels right.
I projected this number at 150, so while there's not much value, I'm fine playing in a parlay that I view as correlated. South Florida's goal will be to keep this possession total below 70. I expect them to win that battle, and I don't think either offense is efficient enough in the halfcourt to eclipse this number.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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South Florida vs Memphis odds
South Florida vs Memphis live odds
South Florida vs Memphis opening odds
- Spread: South Florida +14 | Memphis -14
- Moneyline: South Florida +750 | Memphis -1200
- Over/Under: Over 151.5 | Under 151.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
South Florida vs Memphis betting trend to know
Memphis has hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 32 games (+5.90 Units / 4% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for South Florida vs. Memphis.
How to watch South Florida vs Memphis
| Location | FedExForum, Memphis, TN |
| Date | Friday, 3-7-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
South Florida vs Memphis key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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