Two quality mid-major teams will face off in the opening round of the NIT as the Arkansas State Red Wolves host the Saint Louis Billikens on Tuesday night.
The total for this game has been set unreasonably high, which is why I’m backing the Under in my Saint Louis vs Arkansas State predictions below.
Let’s learn more about these teams and explore what we should expect tonight in my free college basketball picks for Tuesday, March 18.
Who will win St. Louis vs Arkansas State?
Arkansas State came up just short of winning the Sun Belt Conference title and making it to the NCAA Tournament, but the Red Wolves will still be looking to get the most of their first taste of national postseason basketball since 1999. This is a relatively talented team that plays tough on defense despite an entertaining, up-tempo approach. With all the motivation in the world to show out in front of its home fans, I’m picking Arkansas State to win this one.
St. Louis vs Arkansas State prediction
My best bet: Under 154.5 (-110 at bet365)
The Arkansas State Red Wolves come into this game having hit the Over in five straight games, and the Saint Louis Billikens have played to totals of at least 158 points in three of its last five outings. That must be the reason why oddsmakers have set the total so high for this matchup, as there’s no long-term data that supports the total being this high.
For starters, the Billikens have been an Under machine all year long, only hitting the Over nine times in 31 games. They’re pretty average on both offense and defense, play at a generally normal pace, and simply aren’t the kind of team you expect to see extremely high totals associated with. I noted it has played to big numbers in three of their last five games, but Saint Louis also came in Under tonight’s number in 16 consecutive games before then.
Maybe this total is all about the Red Wolves, then. Arkansas State does play faster, but it isn’t a pure run-and-gun squad, and it doesn’t have an especially efficient offense. In fact, the Red Wolves are good mostly because of their defensive effort, holding opponents to just 40.4% shooting overall an 30.4% from three-point range, both of which rank in the top 20 nationally.
Neither team plays to an average total of even 150 points, let alone the number that has been put on tonight’s game. Outside of some very short-term trends, there’s no reason for this total to be as high as it is. I’m backing the Under.
St. Louis vs Arkansas State same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 154.5
Arkansas State -5.5
Arkansas State Under 80.5
I believe oddsmakers are severely overestimating the number of points we can expect in tonight’s game, and that theme is running through my same-game parlay. Along with taking the Under, I’m also picking Arkansas State to cover the 5.5-point spread. The Red Wolves are a slightly better team on paper, and their home court advantage should make them a bit of a bigger favorite than this line suggests.
But despite taking them to win, I’m also picking the Red Wolves to finish Under their team total of 80.5 points, and this shouldn’t be the shootout many are expecting. If you’re looking for an alternate version of this SGP, you might take Arkansas State on the moneyline rather than the spread, but since that would correlate more strongly with the two Under bets, I prefer the value we get from giving up the points.
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St. Louis vs Arkansas State odds
St. Louis vs Arkansas State live odds
St. Louis vs Arkansas State opening odds
- Spread: St. Louis +5.5 (-105) | Arkansas State -5.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: St. Louis +190 | Arkansas State -230
- Over/Under: Over 154.5 (-110) | Under 154.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
St. Louis vs Arkansas State betting trend to know
Saint Louis has played Under tonight’s total in 18 of its last 21 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for St. Louis vs. Arkansas State.
How to watch St. Louis vs Arkansas State
| Location | First National Bank Arena, Jonesboro, AR |
| Date | Tuesday, 3-18-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPNU |
St. Louis vs Arkansas State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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