Saint Peter’s will hope to claim an unexpected berth in the March Madness odds on Saturday when the Peacocks look for an upset of the Fairfield Stags in the MAAC Championship. The latest college basketball odds have the Stags slightly favored to claim the automatic bid with a win.
The Peacocks narrowly reached the final, with a buzzer-beating put-back to knock off top-seeded Quinnipiac in the semifinal. Saint Peter’s blew a nine-point second-half lead, with the last-gasp winner ending a run of more than three minutes without a point.
Fairfield is the two-seed in the tournament and will hope to make it 3-for-3 against the Peacocks this season. Jalen Leach and Caleb Fields form a two-headed monster in the backcourt, and they were pivotal in overturning an 11-point first-half deficit to overcome Marist on Friday.
Our college basketball picks for Saint Peter’s vs Fairfield on Saturday, March 16 explain why Fields will once again be important to a Fairfield victory.
St. Peter's vs Fairfield best odds
St. Peter's vs Fairfield picks and predictions
Fairfield needed every bit of the 22 points it got on Friday from Caleb Fields. He took 18 shots on the night, going 3-of-9 from downtown and posting a 30.7 usage rate. It marked the fourth time in Fairfield’s last five games that Fields had a usage rate of 25.4 or more.
Over his last four games, Fields has scored at least 17 points in each contest and has averaged 8.5 attempts from beyond the arc. He’s scored 20+ in both games in the tournament, despite Fairfield not topping 70 points in either contest.
In a game where Fairfield will have to find a way to beat a tough Saint Peter’s defense, I’m backing Fields to score 17+ once again as he looks to lead his team to the NCAA Tournament.
Since posting just five points in the first matchup between these two teams, Fields is averaging 19.3 points per game, including the rematch at Saint Peter’s in February. Fields went the road and scored 17 points, making four of his nine 3-point shots as the Stags won by two points.
Fields rarely gets into foul trouble and has played 35+ minutes in all but two of the 15 games in this stretch. Saint Peter’s ranks 340th in FT rate defense, and Fields can capitalize on that by continuing to attack the basket. He’s already attempted 14 FTs in the tournament and went 4-of-5 at the rim on Friday night. I trust him to find his points, whether off the dribble or from distance, much as he has been over the past six weeks.
Right now, the -115 odds at bet365 are the best on the board for Fields to score 17+ points. It’s a good price for the Stags’ top 3-point shooter, as both he and Jalen Leach will be looked to carry the Stags' offense.
My best bet: Caleb Fields Over 16.5 points (-115 at bet365)
St. Peter's vs Fairfield same-game parlay
Caleb Fields Over 16.5 points
Jalen Leach Over 4.5 rebounds
Fairfield moneyline
Leach averages more than four rebounds per game this season, but he had 7+ in both meetings with Saint Peter’s this season. He even led all players in rebounding in each game, tying for the game-high with eight in the first showdown. He’s had 5+ boards in both tournament games and is good value to reach that total again.
Fairfield is the better team overall, and there’s a reason the Stags beat Saint Peter’s twice this season. The Peacocks shot just 38.9% from the floor against Quinnipiac after making less than 29% of their shots against Rider. That kind of offensive output won’t get the job done here, and Fairfield will claim victory when it’s all said and done.
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St. Peter's vs Fairfield spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread opened with Fairfield favored by -1.5 and has moved to -2.5 through the morning. The Stags were favored by 3.5 in the last meeting and failed to cover as they won by just two.
That was one of eight covers the Peacocks have had in their last 10 matches, and they’ve done so in both games of the tournament. That includes winning outright as +3.5 dogs against Quinnipiac. Fairfield failed to cover as five-point favorites over Marist, but the Stags are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight.
The total opened anywhere between 126.5 and 131.5 but has settled in the middle around 128 as of early Saturday afternoon. Saint Peter’s has gone Under in both games in this tournament and three of the last four.
The Peacocks' two-point win over Quinnipiac saw just 122 points scored, clearing the Under by a whopping 16 points. For Fairfield, the Under is 4-1 in its last five.
St. Peter's vs Fairfield betting trend to know
Fairfield has hit the moneyline in 21 of their last 26 games (+23.20 Units / 34% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for St. Peter's vs. Fairfield.
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St. Peter's vs Fairfield game info
| Location: | Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, NJ |
| Date: | Saturday, March 16, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPNU |
St. Peter's vs Fairfield key injuries
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