The closest-lined game in the first round of the 2023 Pac-12 Men’s Basketball Tournament sees the No. 7 seed Utah Utes face the No. 10 seed Stanford Cardinal.
The Utes looked primed for a big season after a surprisingly hot start but ultimately fell back near their modest pre-season expectations. On the other end, the Cardinal had a mightily disappointing season as this year’s veteran squad never quite found its groove.
What’s the best bet for this first-round matchup? Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Utah vs. Stanford on Wednesday, March 8 below to find out.
Stanford vs Utah best odds
Stanford vs Utah picks and predictions
This is Craig Smith’s second year as head coach of the Utes after previously spending three years at Utah State. His team went just 11-20 a year ago and was picked by many to finish near the bottom of the Pac-12 standings this time around. The Utes got out to a hot 4-0 start in conference play before ultimately fizzling out.
They enter the tournament the healthiest they've been in a while as point guard Gabe Madsen returned to the lineup for the regular season finale after missing the entire month of February.
With Madsen back in the fold, it’s possible Utah goes on a run in Las Vegas. The Utes rank a respectable 63rd in KenPom, checking in at 117th in offensive efficiency and 33rd in defensive efficiency. Winning four games in four days is a very tall order, and Smith’s squad will need to get out of an ugly funk that saw them lose five straight games to conclude the regular season.
Stanford entered this season with a veteran team that was supposed to be a bit of a dark horse in the conference. Not so fast! The Cardinal dug themselves an unsurmountable hole after going 0-7 to begin conference play. While the team certainly got better after that rough start (7-6 in its last 13 conference games), it wasn’t enough to move out of the bottom quarter of the standings.
The Tree are headed by forwards Harrison Ingram, Spencer Jones, Brandon Angel, and guard Michael Jones. They check in at 86th overall in KenPom, ranking 40th in offensive efficiency and 159th in defensive efficiency.
These two teams played twice this season and split, with the away team winning each matchup. Stanford shot 10-for-18 from 3-point range in a 78-72 victory in the most recent meeting — an outlier shooting performance that cannot be expected to be repeated. It was also Utah’s first game sans Madsen after he left the Oregon game early the game prior. Therefore, I’m not putting a ton of stock into that data point.
I think the current line of a pick‘em is discounting Utah a bit. The Utes were the better team for the majority of the season and enter the tournament as healthy as they’ve ever been. The line is all about recent form, as Utah has been struggling lately whereas Stanford has been playing decent basketball finally.
This is the same Stanford team that lost by 22 points against Cal — the worst Power 5 basketball program in the country. I’ll give Utah the benefit of the doubt and back the Utes to start the tournament with a victory.
My best bet: Utah moneyline (-109 at BetRivers)
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Stanford vs Utah spread analysis
This line is virtually set as a pick‘em, although Utah -1 is also popping at certain locations. It's expected to be a tight game for a reason, as Stanford has been playing slightly above .500 basketball for the last month-plus, whereas the Utes finished with a .500 record in conference play.
Neither team has been very proficient in away or neutral site games this season. The Cardinal are just 4-12 away from Palo Alto, whereas Utah is 5-8 away from Salt Lake City.
Last year’s Pac-12 tournament saw both teams exceed expectations in the first round by covering the spread. Stanford hung close with Arizona State as +3.5 underdogs in a one-point loss, whereas the Utes were favored by just a single point over Washington put pulled off an 11-point victory.
Craig Smith has won two conference tournament championships in his short coaching career. While backing the Utes in this spot requires placing a certain level of trust in the coaching staff, Smith is someone who possesses the prowess to get his team ready for a tournament run.
Stanford vs Utah Over/Under analysis
The total opened at 136 across the board and has not seen any movement as of the time of this writing early Wednesday morning.
Neither team likes to play with much urgency. The Utes check in at 244th in adjusted tempo (KenPom) while the Cardinal are even slower at 279th. One should not anticipate a ton of possession in this game.
That being said, both of the regular season matchups between these teams ended up going Over the total. The New Year’s Eve meeting, a 71-66 Utah win in Palo Alto, went Over the total of 132.5 by 4.5 points. The second meeting, a 78-72 Cardinal victory in Salt Lake City, soared Over the total of 135.5 by 14.5 points.
Stanford was profitable to the Over this season, going 18-13. That includes a hot streak that has seen the Cardinal cash the Over in six of their last seven games.
Utah was the complete opposite, going 20-11 to the Under. The most telling trend to me in this matchup is that Utah is 11-2 to the Under in its 13 games played away from home this season.
Stanford vs Utah betting trend to know
Stanford is 4-12 in games played away from home this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Stanford vs. Utah.
Stanford vs Utah game info
| Conference: | Pac-12 Round 1 |
| Location: | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Wednesday, March 8, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Pac-12 Network |
