TCU vs Baylor Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bears Awake From Two-Game Slumber

The Baylor Bears are probably happy to return to Foster Pavilion, and why wouldn’t they be?

They’ve suffered a pair of road losses and now face a must-win situation to keep pace with the Big 12 leaderboard. The TCU Horned Frogs narrowly avoided their third consecutive loss but snuck out of Oklahoma State with a slim victory along with some momentum ahead of their Saturday matchup in Waco.

Join me as I look closer at the college basketball odds with free college basketball picks for TCU and Baylor on Saturday, January 27

TCU vs Baylor best odds

TCU vs Baylor picks and predictions

The fresh paint smell still lingers, but the Baylor Bears have christened their new home the right way by going 10-0 straight up and 8-2-0 ATS in their shiny new barn.

It’s a good thing the Bears are hosting TCU on Saturday because it will take everything Baylor has on its roster and the rabid Bears fans in the new seats to shake their two-game losing streak and keep their unbeaten streak at “The Foster” alive.

Baylor relies on frosh guard Ja’Kobe Walter to produce offensively, and he’s averaging 16.2 points per game with four caroms and 1.5 dimes at home. Walter ended a rough four-game patch with a 22-point night at Texas, and he’ll benefit from playing against a man-to-man TCU defense he can blow past and a faster tempo than the one the Bears typically deploy.

The Bears force 13.2 turnovers per game which they turn into 17.7 points per tilt. Baylor forces a turnover, and away they go. If they can’t go all the way to the cup, they splash from downtown, where they are draining 45.5% at home. They’ll benefit from the Horned Frogs' 13.2 turnovers and 13.5 points allowed from turnovers per tilt to win this game and cover the spread.

Baylor should also enjoy an edge on the glass–TCU may top the Big 12 in offensive rebounding percentage but ranks 11th in the conference in allowed offensive rebounds. The Bears are a top-three rebounding team in the conference on both ends of the floor, and I expect Baylor to limit the Horned Frogs' second-chance points and with plenty of second-chance points of their own.

TCU is a good basketball team with a 3-2 away record but 0-2 against the Big 12 in the visitors' jersey. They are a 35% shooting road team from downtown, but that percentage will be difficult to reach Saturday against the longer Bears perimeter defenders, allowing 28% shooting at home from beyond the arc at Foster Pavilion.

Finally, Baylor is the better team and undefeated at home, with one week to prepare for this Big 12 clash. They are the best three-point shooting team in the country that will benefit from a TCU offense that is untrustworthy with the ball and doesn’t clean their defensive glass. The Bears need a win in the worst way to keep up with the top half of the standings and are 8-2-0 ATS at Foster Pavilion. Lay the points and go with Baylor to cover the spread on Saturday afternoon.

My best bet: Baylor -5.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

TCU vs Baylor same-game parlay

Baylor -5.5

Under 154.4

+252 at FanDuel

Today's SGP correlates well because Baylor won’t likely win a high-scoring game. TCU plays a faster tempo and scores the most fast-break points per game (21.9) nationally, but

that’s mostly because they force 15.4 turnovers per tilt. That works well against most teams, but Baylor doesn’t turn over the ball much and allows only 12.2 ppg from their own miscues.

Points from turnovers and three-point shooting will be the difference in this game, and Baylor is much better at both and playing at home. It’s why Baylor will cover the spread, and this Big 12 matchup ends Under the total.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

TCU vs Baylor spread and Over/Under analysis

We have two teams that make money covering the spread this season. TCU is 11-8-0 ATS overall and 3-2-0 ATS as the away team. Baylor is 11-5-1 ATS and 7-2-0 ATS as the home side.

That means we have teams that usually cover, but Baylor does a better job covering the spread at home and is also 3-1-1 ATS against TCU over their previous five encounters.

The Over for both programs has been better for the bettor. TCU is 10-9-0 to the Over, while Baylor is 9-8-0 to the Over.

Baylor has been the better program in this series, holding a 104-86 edge and an even better 55-38 at home against the Horned Frogs. That puts the Baylor moneyline in play, but -210 is the best price you’ll find pregame.

TCU vs Baylor betting trend to know

Baylor is 4-1-0 ATS over their last five home games. Find more college basketball betting trends for TCU vs. Baylor.

TCU vs Baylor game info

TCU vs Baylor key injuries

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