Another day, another highly-anticipated Big 12 conference matchup. Tonight, No. 17 TCU (17-6) heads to Manhattan to face No. 12 Kansas State (18-5) in a game between two ranked teams.
The Horned Frogs are anxious to right the ship after dropping two of their last three games — both on the road. The Wildcats are in a similar boat having dropped three of their last four contests.
Which team will stop the bleeding? Read our college basketball betting picks for TCU vs. Kansas State below to find out.
TCU vs Kansas State best odds
TCU vs Kansas State picks and predictions
TCU had a three-game winning streak in Big 12 play snapped in Stillwater on Saturday. The Horned Frogs trailed by 19 points in the second half but were able to rally back to grab a 65-63 lead before ultimately succumbing 79-73.
Star point guard Mike Miles Jr. missed the contest and is expected to be out until the matchup with Baylor this Saturday — meaning his presence is not anticipated Tuesday night in Manhattan. His loss is a big one as he leads the team in scoring (18.1 ppg).
TCU checks in at 17th overall in KenPom, ranking 41st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Kansas State has lost three straight conference games (Texas, at Kansas, at Iowa State), but such is life in the Big 12. They are now tied with TCU at 6-4 in the Big 12 standings, making this a crucial regular-season meeting. z
Star point guard Markquis Nowell is in the midst of a slump, turning the ball over at least five times in three straight games and converting just three of his last 16 attempts from behind the arc.
Opposing teams have been able to devise ways to force the ball out of his hands and force him to make tough decisions. His struggles are partly to blame for the recent losing streak.
The Wildcats rank 26th in KenPom, checking in at 37th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 25th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
The first matchup in Fort Worth was never really in doubt, as TCU punished Kansas State’s interior defense en route to an 82-68 victory. I don’t see history repeating itself in the rematch.
This is a revenge game for Kansas State, and the Wildcats need every win they can get to stay alive in the Big 12 standings after dropping three straight. It’s a huge game for them at home and head coach Jerome Tang has been challenging his team after their recent slump, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we see an inspired performance.
The Wildcats have been on a profitable stretch, going 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall including a 5-1 ATS run in their last six home games. They are up to 15-8 ATS on the season as one of the more underrated teams nationally in the betting market.
TCU hasn’t looked the same without Miles, dropping games to both Mississippi State (in which he played only four minutes before leaving injured) and Oklahoma State. He’s one of the best guards in the country and his absence can’t be understated in a revenge game on the road against the No. 12 team in the country.
My best bet: Kansas State -4.5 (-110 at bet365)
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TCU vs Kansas State spread analysis
The line opened at Kansas State -2.5 before quickly moving further toward the favorite. Currently, the Wildcats reside between -4.5 and -5 depending on the book.
Both teams have been highly profitable this season. TCU is 13-9-1 ATS while Kansas State has been even better at 15-8 ATS.
Tang’s Wildcats had performed well against good opposition, going 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against a team with a winning straight-up record. Florida transfer Keyontae Johnson’s return to the court has not only been an incredible story but he’s also been a tremendous player.
Johnson leads the team in both scoring (18.1) and rebounding (7.7) per game while shooting an efficient 52.3% from the field and contributing in multiple areas. Nowell averaged 16.8 ppg and leads the team with 7.8 assists. Big man Nae’Qwan Tomlin is the third player averaging double figures at 10.4 ppg.
TCU will need players to step up sans Miles, with Emanuel Miller (13.2 ppg) and Damion Baugh (12.8 ppg) being the two most likely candidates. The Horned Frogs haven’t had a reliable post presence, although the expected return of Lampkin to the lineup certainly helps.
TCU vs Kansas State Over/Under analysis
Be sure to shop around if playing the total, which currently resides between 146.5 and 147.5. Why so high? Both teams have been flying Over the total with regularity this season as TCU is 14-9 to the Over while Kansas State is right behind at 13-10.
The Horned Frogs average 77.3 ppg while operating at a lightning-quick pace. Jamie Dixon’s squad ranks 39th in adjusted tempo, per KenPom.
One thing that will be important for this total and handicap overall is if the Horned Frogs can consistently convert shots from behind the arc. They rank just 352nd in 3-point shooting (29.1%) and may find difficulty finding open looks against a Kansas State team that ranks 15th in 3-point defense (29%).
Kansas State averages 76.7 ppg and operates at the 67th-fastest tempo, per KenPom. The Wildcats thrive by drawing fouls and getting to the charity stripe, ranking 19th in made free throws per game (16.5) while converting them at 74.8% (56th).
TCU vs Kansas State betting trend to know
The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six home game. Find more college basketball betting trends for TCU vs. Kansas State.
TCU vs Kansas State game info
| Location: | Bramlage Coliseum, Manhattan, KS |
| Date: | Tuesday, February 7, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPNU |
