TCU vs Texas Picks and Predictions: Longhorns' Spread Might be Too Long

The TCU Horned Frogs snapped a three-game losing streak with their win over the West Virginia Mountaineers last game, and they’ll now look to find a way to earn a victory over the Texas Longhorns on Wednesday. Texas should be full of energy after losing to the Texas Tech Red Raiders in Austin, so it’ll be interesting to see what happens here. 

Will the Horned Frogs end up staying competitive against the Longhorns? Continue reading our TCU vs. Texas college basketball picks and predictions for February 23 to find out. 

TCU vs Texas odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The total in this game is all the way up to 128.5 at some sportsbooks, but you can get it at 126 if you look hard enough. Meanwhile, Texas was favored by 9 when this game first opened, but the most common lines have the Longhorns as favorites of 8 or 8.5 as of early Wednesday morning. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

TCU vs Texas predictions

• Prediction: TCU +9 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 126 (-110)
• Best bet: TCU +9 (-110)

Predictions made on 2/23/2022 at 12:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

TCU vs Texas game info

• Location: Frank C. Erwin Jr. Center, Austin TX
• Date: Wednesday, February 23, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2

TCU at Texas betting preview

Injuries

TCU: Eddie Lampkin Jr. C (Questionable), Shahada Wells G (Out), Maxwell Evans G (Out).
Texas: Tre Mitchell C (Out).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

TCU is 6-1-1 in their last eight road games.  Find more NCAA betting trends for TCU vs. Texas.

TCU vs Texas picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

TCU hasn’t exactly been winning a lot of games recently, but the Horned Frogs are 12-5-3 against the spread in their last 20 games. They have consistently been staying competitive, even If the final outcome isn’t always perfect. The Horned Frogs are also 12-4 ATS on the road since the start of last season, and they have lost those games by only 4.3 points per game. That’s a pretty good statistic when you also consider that the Longhorns are 5-14 ATS when playing at home after three road games in a row over the last three seasons. 

One reason to really buy into TCU’s chances in this game is the Horned Frogs defense. TCU is 27th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency (all efficiency stats from KenPom.com), which isn’t going to be good for a Texas team that can occasionally struggle to score the basketball. The Longhorns are 35th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, but they have shot under 40.0% from the floor in two of their last three games. They have also shot under 45.0% from the floor in eight of their last 10, and they rely far too heavily on the shot-making of Courtney Ramey. 

TCU isn’t awesome on the offensive end, but Mike Miles is averaging 14.7 points and 4.1 assists per game this year. The sophomore is capable of hitting big-time shots and should be able to do enough to keep the Horned Frogs in this one.  

Overall, TCU should shoot a lot better from the outside than the team did when it went 2-for-16 from three in a blowout loss to Texas earlier in the year. Look for the Horned Frogs to make this one respectable, especially considering the Longhorns are not playing their best basketball right now. 

Prediction: TCU +9 (-110) 

Over/Under analysis

TCU and Texas are two of the better defensive teams in the Big 12 this season, but the number on this game is just absurdly low. These teams can each score in the high 60’s and the Over would still hit — which is still a low-scoring game in which the defense can be on full display. Three of the last four meetings between these teams have actually gone Over the total, and two of them had combined scores in the 120’s. 

Since Jamie Dixon got to TCU, the Over is actually 78-62 when the Horned Frogs are playing against teams with winning records. The Over is also 9-5 in the 14 games that Texas has played against Big 12 opponents this season, and it’s also 7-6 in TCU’s conference games this year. 

It should also be noted that the Over is 7-0 when TCU is playing on the road after a win by 10 or more points over the last three seasons. The average total points scored in those games is 138.8 points per game. 

Prediction: Over 126 (-110) 

Best bet

TCU hasn’t been intimidated when going on the road recently, as the Horned Frogs are 6-1-1 ATSin their last eight road games. Texas is also 4-11 ATS in its last 15 home games against teams with winning road records. This is just a spot in which the Horned Frogs should show up with a lot of tenacity, while the Longhorns could be a bit tight in what’s a big game after they lost to the Red Raiders last game. 

Considering this one should be somewhat low-scoring, this is a really big spread to be giving to a solid basketball team. TCU might have been blown out by Texas at home earlier in the year, but that’s only going to add more fuel to the fire for the Horned Frogs. Look for them to be really active on the defensive end, and don’t be surprised if they shoot the three a little better than normal. They’re due to hit some big ones. 

Pick: TCU +9 (-110)

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