Conference play in the SEC begins tonight and is headlined by a duel between two ranked opponents. The No. 14 Tennessee Volunteers will face off against the No. 19 Alabama Crimson Tide in what will be one of the defining SEC matchups of the season.
Continue reading for our free college basketball picks and predictions for Tennessee vs. Alabama on Wednesday, December 29th.
Tennessee vs Alabama odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The spread opened Alabama -2 and has since bounced frequently close to that number, and currently sits at -3. The total opened at 148 and has similarly moved a little in each direction since, and currently sits at 147.5
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Tennessee vs Alabama predictions
Predictions made on 12/29/2021 at 11:25 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Tennessee vs Alabama game info
• Location: Coleman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, AL
• Date: Wednesday, December 29, 2021
• Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2
Tennessee at Alabama betting preview
Injuries
Tennessee: No injuries to report.
Alabama: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Tennessee has gone Under the total in five of its last six games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Tennessee vs. Alabama.
Tennessee vs Alabama picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Wednesday's matchup between Tennessee and Alabama is a highly stylized one and features two teams on opposite trajectories as of late. Tennessee is fresh off their best win of the season against No. 6 Arizona, propelling them nine spots in the AP poll. Tennessee is characterized by its elite defense, ranking second in KenPom defensive efficiency and 20th in points allowed. The Vols accomplish this through their ability to force turnovers (12th in steals, 21st in turnovers forced) and their tendency to pack the paint (35th in two-point percentage).
On offense, the Volunteers are a two-pronged attack. They are lightning quick in transition off of their forced turnovers and are meticulous in their halfcourt offense. In the latter, they typically play hot potato with the ball along the perimeter until an open three presents itself (25th in such attempts). They're just average at converting those shots, but are incredibly careful with the ball (34th in turnovers surrendered), which provides them cushion.
Alabama, as many fans know, is no stranger to that three-point approach: it ranks 13th in attempts and shoots them at an identical clip to Tennessee (33.7%). Jaden Shackelford leads the team in those efforts, shooting a whopping 8.3 threes per game at 41.4%, and scoring a team-leading 16.8 PPG. Between their more defined approach, their reputation preceding them, and their proficiency on the offensive glass (27th), they also tack on high percentage shots inside (12th in the nation).
In that regard, Tennessee's recent game with Arizona provides a good baseline to judge how this game may go. Arizona ranks first in scoring, first in three-point attempts, and seventh in three-point percentage. After scoring just 21 points and going down 13 in the first half, they were able to tie the game and keep it close down the stretch despite committing 18 personal fouls in the second half to Tennessee's 16 in the entire game. It's difficult to envision Alabama letting the game get away from them by committing similarly massive mistakes.
Prediction: Alabama -3 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The total is admittedly a difficult read. On defense, Alabama isn't awful by any means (53rd in KenPom) but they also tend to fall apart quickly against better competition. They've allowed 83.8 points on average to the likes of Gonzaga (2nd in KenPom offensive efficiency), Houston (7th), Davidson (22nd), and Memphis (49th), and Tennessee ranks 37th in that regard.
The potential problem for this game, however, is a slow start. Alabama hasn't played in over a week and Tennessee has played just once in the last fifteen days. It's not difficult to imagine two teams heavily reliant on three-point shooting to not have the legs or rhythm to support their approaches. The hope here is that a slow enough start can give this total (which has been set relatively high) some room to breathe.
Prediction: Under 147.5 (-105)
Best bet
Yes, Tennessee is coming off its best win of the season, and yes Alabama has lost two of its last three. But momentum hardly matters when these teams have played so infrequently as of late. Tennessee's "elite" defense is intimidating on paper, but upon closer examination, it may be a little inflated. The Vols gave up 70+ to the likes of Arizona, Villanova, and North Carolina. Their "signature" defensive performance against a respectable offense came against Texas Tech, a game in which they lost.
On offense, Alabama is likely okay if more volume lands in the hands of Tennessee's John Fulkerson, who is coming off an admittedly impressive 24-point showing against Arizona. Each potential three-point attempt from Kennedy Chandler (14.0 PPG, 37.2% from three) and Santiago Vescovi (13.3 PPG, 35.3%) that is replaced by a two-point shot from Fulkerson is just another opportunity for Coach Oates to push Alabama's three-point volume advantage.
Expect the tide to roll tonight in Tuscaloosa.
Pick: Alabama -3 (-110)
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