Tennessee vs Arkansas Picks and Predictions: Razors of the Lost Ark

It’s Saturday — there are so many great games to cover in college basketball today. But none might be better than Tennessee visiting Arkansas in a Top-25 SEC matchup. 

The Arkansas Razorbacks have caught fire in the second half of the season. After odd losses to Hofstra, Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M, the Razorbacks have won 10 of their last 11 games and are currently 9-4 in conference play. 

Likewise, the Tennessee Volunteers are on a five-game winning streak after knocking off Kentucky 76-63. 

Can Tennessee knock off a second-straight Top-25 team? Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for Tennessee vs. Arkansas on Saturday, February 19. 

Tennessee vs Arkansas odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

On the road, Tennessee was favored when the lines first came out, at -1.5. Now, Arkansas is a 3-point favorite, at home. The total has since increased from 141.5 at open to as high as 143 at multiple books.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Tennessee vs Arkansas predictions

• Prediction: Arkansas -3 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 143 (-110)
• Best bet: Arkansas -3 (-110)

Predictions made on 2/19/2022 at 8:05 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Tennessee vs Arkansas game info

• Location: Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville, AK
• Date: Saturday, February 19, 2022
• Tip-off: 4:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2

Tennessee at Arkansas betting preview

Injuries

Tennessee: Olivier Nkamhoua F (Out).
Arkansas: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Razorbacks are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. Find more NCAA betting trends for Tennessee vs. Arkansas.

Tennessee vs Arkansas picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Tennessee Volunteers are coming off a massive win at home against Kentucky. But the momentum might end tonight, in Fayetteville. 

The Volunteers are shooting an effective field goal percentage of 51% and haven’t been turning the ball over much, at 17.6%. On the glass, the Volunteers earn 32.9% offensive rebounds, but that number figures to decrease against Arkansas.

Tennessee is shooting nearly 35% from deep but just 50.1% from inside the arc. Tennessee is going to shoot many more threes than Arkansas in this game, as 36.1% of points are coming from three-pointers. 

Meanwhile, Arkansas has allowed just a 47.8% effective field goal percentage and earns 21.3% turnovers. On the glass, the Razorbacks limit offensive rebounds to 24.3%. Arkansas will sometimes get into foul trouble, but it’s not like the Volunteers are very aggressive and have a knack for getting to the line either. 

On the other hand, Tennessee is earning 24.5% turnovers this season while holding teams to 33% from deep and 46.9% from inside the arc. The turnovers for Tennessee are what makes that defense so special, but so far this season, especially as of late, Arkansas has done well with the rock, limiting turnovers to 17.4%. 

At home, you’d like to think that Arkansas can be more careful with the ball and a little more comfortable from the field. The Razorbacks are shooting just 31.4% from deep and 51.3% from inside the arc. However, Arkansas has only scored 25% of its points from downtown. 

The Razorbacks win games by getting to the line, as they shoot 74.1% from the charity stripe. The Volunteers earn a lot of turnovers but could also get into foul trouble at times, like Arkansas. If this game becomes chippy with many fouls, Arkansas would be favored. 

So, I’ll ride with Arkansas in a close SEC matchup. 

Prediction: Arkansas -3 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

There might be a whole lot of fouling in this game, but ultimately, not many field goals are going to fall for either team. This is a game between two of the best defenses in the nation. 

Both teams are currently in the Top 20 in defensive efficiency via KenPom and that tells you all you need to know about how great these two teams are on D. Both earn turnovers at a high rate and both defend inside at a very high rate. 

So, I’ll take the Under, which is now as high as 143. 

Prediction: Under 143 (-110)

Best bet

Arkansas has defended well enough to stick around against Tennessee. At home, the crowd will be loud, and some calls might even go their way. 

That would be helpful, knowing how well Arkansas has done at the line and how well they’ve done at just getting to the line in the first place. 

The Razorbacks will limit second chances on the defensive end and should be able to limit turnovers on the offensive end. If Arkansas manages those key areas well, Arkansas will cover this game.

Pick: Arkansas -3 (-110)

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