The No. 4 seeded Tennessee Volunteers face off against the No. 2 seed Florida Gators for the SEC Tournament Championship this afternoon.
Early money has come in on the Gators and the Over, but my Tennessee vs. Florida predictions are going against the line movement.
See why with my free college basketball picks for this clash between two of the best teams in the country on March 16.
Who will win Tennessee vs Florida?
The Florida Gators have won 11 of their last 12 games. They're No. 2 in the KenPom ratings with the Tennessee Volunteers close behind at No. 5. Tennessee's 11-6 record in Quad 1 games and 8-4 mark against ranked opponents is slightly worse than Florida, who is 10-4 and 7-2 respectively.
The Vols have been dominant on defense, but the Gators also defend at an elite level and are more consistent on offense. Florida is 34th in the country in effective field goal percentage (55.2%) and 38th in turnover rate while the Vols are 84th in eFG% (52.8%) and sit just outside the Top 100 in turnover rate.
This should be a close game, but Florida's shooting advantage and ball security gives it a slight edge.
Tennessee vs Florida prediction
My best bet: Tennessee +5.5 (-110 at bet365)
The Gators are on fire, having gone 11-1 straight up and against the spread in their last 12 games. That said, I don't see them as 5.5 points better on a neutral site than Tennessee.
The Volunteers are coming off a 70-65 win against No. 2 ranked Auburn as 5-point underdogs. They're now 4-1 SU and ATS as an underdog this season, and while that lone loss as a dog came at Florida back in January, they returned the favor in February by blowing out the Gators at home.
The Vols are third in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and have been shutting down high-powered attacks all year.
They held Florida's offense in check in their previous meetings, limited Alabama's up-tempo attack to 76 points on 42% shooting, and shut down Auburn's elite attack twice. Tennessee held the Tigers (second in the country in adjusted offense) to just 53 points at Neville Arena back in January before limiting them to 42% shooting last night.
That elite defense will make it tough for Florida to separate on the scoreboard. While the Vols don't have the Gators offensive firepower, they have an experienced backcourt, do a good job of spacing the floor, and have excellent ball movement.
With KenPom projecting a 3-point win for the Gators and Bart Torvik setting the line at Florida -2.2, back the Vols at +5.5.
Tennessee vs Florida same-game parlay (SGP)
Tennessee +5.5
Under 143.5
Igor Milicic Jr. Over 7.5 points
Both teams took turns destroying each other during the regular season, but the defenses showed up in each outing.
Even in the Gators' 30-point win, the Vols held them to just 40% shooting and 6-for-20 shooting from deep. Likewise, despite Tennessee's blowout victory, Florida limited it to 40% shooting and 6 of 22 from long range.
While Tennessee is third in the country in adjusted defense, Florida is close at No. 7. The Vols have also shown the ability to slow down up-tempo attacks and both teams are playing their third game in three days. Don't expect the breakneck pace we saw in the Gators vs Tide game last night.
Igor Milic had a poor game yesterday, scoring seven points in 16 minutes while having a pair of sloppy turnovers down the stretch. The Vols need a better performance from him today, and the fact he averages 10.2 points and 7.1 rebounds in 26.3 minutes per game suggests they'll get it.
Milicic scored at least nine points in his previous three games, including the quarterfinals against Texas where he logged 12 points in 31 minutes. Rick Barnes will need the 6-foot-10 forward on the floor to combat Florida's imposing frontcourt.
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Tennessee vs Florida odds
Tennessee vs Florida live odds
Tennessee vs Florida opening odds
- Spread: Tennessee +4.5 | Florida -4.5
- Moneyline: Tennessee +180 | Florida -220
- Over/Under: Over 142.5 | Under 142.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Tennessee vs Florida betting trend to know
The Volunteers are 4-1 straight up and against the spread as underdogs this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Tennessee vs. Florida.
How to watch Tennessee vs Florida
| Location | Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN |
| Date | Sunday, 3-16-2025 |
| Tip-off | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Tennessee vs Florida key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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