The No. 1 ranked Tennessee Volunteers face off against the No. 8 Florida Gators in SEC action tonight.
This will be the toughest test of the season for the undefeated Vols, and my Tennessee vs Florida predictions see them covering as short road underdogs.
Here are my free college basketball picks for this marquee matchup on January 7.
Tennessee vs Florida prediction
My best bet
Tennessee +3.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Tennessee Volunteers are the last undefeated team in college basketball with a perfect 14-0 record. They lead the country with an average scoring margin of +23.9 points per game and are fresh off a dominant 76-52 win against a talented Arkansas squad.
The Florida Gators were also undefeated until they traveled to Kentucky on Saturday and lost in a 106-100 thriller. The Gators are 16th in the country in opponent 2-point percentage (44.2%), but the Wildcats shot a sizzling 65.7% from inside the arc against them.
North Carolina is the only other team Florida has faced with a Top 75 offense, and the Tar Heels scored 84 points on 63.6% shooting inside.
The Gators will have a tough time guarding a Vols side ranked 20th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and shoots 57.4% from 2-point range. On the other side of the floor, the Vols are first in the country in adjusted defense, and they match up well with Florida's high-powered offense.
The Gators attempt the 27th-most threes per game (28.4) and are 21st in attacking the rim efficiency, per ShotQualityBets. However, Tennessee holds opponents to 24.3% shooting from deep (easily the best number in the country) and ranks 17th in defending the rim.
The Vols have shown the ability to shut down high-level offenses, limiting Baylor to 62 points and holding Illinois to 64 points on 29% shooting. Tennessee has the lockdown perimeter defense to contain Florida's explosive backcourt, but the Gators don't have the defensive chops to limit the Vols inside.
With KenPom and Bart Torvik projecting a 1-point win for the Vols, take them with the points.
Tennessee vs Florida same-game parlay
Tennessee +3.5
Under 148.5
Igor Milicic Jr. Over 9.5 rebounds
Since I expect the Volunteers' elite defense to be a big reason they cover, it makes sense to add the Under 148.5 to this parlay. The Under is also 8-2 in Tennessee's last 10 games.
Tennessee big man Igor Milicic Jr. has been a beast on the glass. He's pulled down double-digit boards in six of his last eight games and is coming off an 18-rebound performance versus Arkansas.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Tennessee vs Florida odds
Tennessee vs Florida live odds
Tennessee vs Florida opening odds
- Spread: Tennessee +2.5 | Florida +2.5
- Moneyline: Tennessee +125 | Florida -150
- Over/Under: Over 148.5 | Under 148.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Tennessee vs Florida betting trend to know
The Vols are 7-1 SU and 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games on the road against high-major foes. Find more college basketball betting trends for Tennessee vs. Florida.
How to watch Tennessee vs Florida
| Location: | Exactech Arena, Gainsville, FL |
| Date: | Tuesday, 1-7-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Tennessee vs Florida key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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