Tennessee vs Kentucky Odds, Picks and Predictions: Vols Put a Tough Week Behind Them

Saturday’s contest between Tennessee and Kentucky is about much more than bragging rights in a border war. The Wildcats need another big win for their postseason resume, while the Vols will want to pick up an important win after knocking off the top team in the nation on Wednesday night.

Tennessee has lost three of its last five, in part due to consecutive buzzer-beater defeats to Vanderbilt and Missouri. For Kentucky, it’s one of its few remaining opportunities to pick up another Quad 1 win, as it sits squarely on the bubble.

Can Rick Barnes continue to get the best of John Calipari on Saturday, or will the Wildcats defend their home court? Find out in our Tennessee vs. Kentucky college basketball picks and predictions for Saturday, February 18. 

Tennessee vs Kentucky best odds

Tennessee vs Kentucky picks and predictions

Tennessee’s defeat to Kentucky was the result of a disparity on the glass. Kentucky held the best offensive-rebounding team in the nation to just three offensive boards and outrebounded the Vols by 18 on the day. 

No team this season has out-rebounded them by more, and the 12-4 advantage the Wildcats enjoyed in second-chance points turned out to be the difference in the game.

But, Tennessee didn’t help itself in other areas. The Vols shot just 14% from beyond the arc, well below their season average. Their three made 3-pointers were the fewest they’ve made in conference play. Kentucky made five on the day, with CJ Fredrick burying three of his nine attempts to help spread the floor.  

With Josiah-Jordan James and Julian Phillips both sidelined, Tennessee bounced back from a pair of losses at the final horn by defeating Alabama on Wednesday night. The top-ranked Tide were held to just 35.4% shooting from the field and committed 19 turnovers in a nine-point loss, despite out-rebounding Tennessee, who while once again struggling from the floor, grabbed 13 offensive rebounds which was a key in pulling off the upset. 

Kentucky’s win over Tennessee was the start of a six-game win streak in conference play, but the Wildcats have lost two of their last three since, including a seven-point loss at Georgia. Their three-point win over Mississippi State on Wednesday night helped right the ship, but they saw a 13-point lead dwindle away down the stretch as they struggled to defend. 

Kentucky has a sub-.500 record against Tennessee since Rick Barnes became head coach, with just eight wins in 18 games. He’s a terrific coach and he will likely set his team up to attack Oscar Tshiebwe. The Kentucky big man has been abused of late by opposing teams, and Tennessee should look to improve on its 36 points in the paint from the first contest.

Kentucky won the first game because it dominated the glass and because Tennessee couldn’t make outside shots, but first-half foul issues for Tennessee helped quite a bit. The Wildcats built their winning margin in the opening 20 minutes, where Tennessee saw four starters pick up two fouls. They also built it on the back of how well they spread the floor, and the absence of Fredrick will be felt in that area.

Under Barnes, the Vols have won three of their seven trips to Rupp Arena. It’s not been the typical fortress this season for the Wildcats, nor will it be today. 

My best bet: Tennessee -1.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Tennessee vs Kentucky spread analysis

The Vols have lost two straight on the road in SEC play, falling at Florida and at Vanderbilt. However, they’ve recorded double-digit wins over LSU, Mississippi State, and South Carolina away from home. 

Kentucky has lost two of its last three in front of the home fans, including a 15-point defeat to Arkansas in the last home game. The Wildcats narrowly defeated Florida the game before that and lost by nine to Kansas the week before. They have gone 3-3 over the past six at home.

The Vols have covered the spread just once in their last five games, but are 5-2 ATS against teams with a record of .600 or better. Kentucky has also covered just once in its last six games at Rupp against teams with a winning record on the road.

Tennessee vs Kentucky Over/Under analysis

The total of 135 for this game is well over what actually was scored in the first meeting when the two teams combined for just 119. Both teams shot 40% or worse on the day, however, and the Vols were denied second-chance points.

Perhaps that’s why the Covers Consensus is leaning Over in this one. 52% of the plays and 64% of the money are on this one going Over, despite four of Tennessee’s last five going Under. The Under is also 27-13 in Tennessee’s last 40 games against teams with a .600 record or better.

On the flip side, Kentucky’s enjoyed some high-scoring Saturday games, with its last four all going Over. The Over is also 5-0 in its last five games against a team with a .600 record or better, and in five of its last six games following a victory. 

Tennessee vs Kentucky betting trend to know

Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games against teams with a .600 record or better. Find more college basketball betting trends for Tennessee vs. Kentucky.

Tennessee vs Kentucky game info

Tennessee vs Kentucky key injuries

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