Tennessee vs Texas Picks and Predictions: Vols Get the Horns in Big 12/SEC Challenge

The Texas Longhorns (15-5) have put together two wins following a stretch in which they lost three of four. They look to keep the momentum rolling when they host the No. 18 Tennessee Volunteers (14-5) in one of the ten matchups in Saturday's Big 12/SEC challenge. The Volunteers have lost three of their last four on the road and will face a Longhorns team that has played to a 12-1 record at home this year.

Continue reading for our free college basketball picks and predictions for Tennessee vs. Texas on Saturday, January 29th for more.

Tennessee vs Texas odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Texas opened as 2-point favorites and has since moved up to -3.5. The total opened at a very low 125 and has since moved up to 126.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Tennessee vs Texas predictions

• Prediction: Texas -3.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 126.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Texas -3.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 1/29/2022 at 3:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Tennessee vs Texas game info

• Location: Frank C. Erwin Jr. Center, Austin, TX
• Date: Saturday, January 29, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Tennessee at Texas betting preview

Injuries

Tennessee: No injuries to report.
Texas: No injuries to report.

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Tennessee has played 10-4 to the Under in its last 14 and has played 7-3 to the Under on totals set below 140 this season. Texas has played 12-8 to the Under on the season. Find more NCAA betting trends for Tennessee vs. Texas.

Tennessee vs Texas picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Tennessee Volunteers have a mixed bag of results so far this season. The best win of their season came against Arizona, who currently ranks third in KenPom overall efficiency. They also picked up a convincing win against LSU last week (who to their credit were without their starting point guard) but had previously lost to them in a similar fashion. Outside of that, Tennessee has convincingly lost to Villanova (fifth in KenPom) and Kentucky (ninth) and dropped another game to Alabama (19th).

Although it may seem difficult to get a read on those results, frequent readers of our Tennessee previews know that one thing has remained true: the Volunteers' defense, which was once anointed as "elite", is far from it. Although their overall numbers may suggest they are one (seventh in KenPom defense), they have repeatedly struggled to limit higher-end offenses.

Those struggles include their outings against Kentucky (fourth in KenPom offensive rankings), Villanova (sixth), Alabama (11th), Arizona (12th), and North Carolina (28th). Across those games, Tennessee has allowed an average of 79.2 points per game, never once holding any of those offenses to below 70 points, and allowing a monstrous 107 to Kentucky. That doesn't bode well for Saturday's affair, as the Texas Longhorns possess the 33rd ranked offense in the nation.

But to make Saturday's affair even more challenging, it isn't Texas' offense that will give Tennessee the most trouble, it's the defense. This should come as no surprise, as first-year head coach Chris Beard constructed a similarly imposing defense during his time at Texas Tech. That defense last year ranked 18th in KenPom, and the Longhorns this year rank 13th. They accomplish this through disciplined execution of a smothering defense. They're good at limiting looks and defending those limited looks.

This could spell a lot of trouble for the Vols. The one thing their offense does "well" is shoot a lot of threes, with their 27.1 attempts per game ranks 25th in the nation. Their 33.2% on those shots paints a different picture, which ranks 206th. Texas is great at defending those looks (65th), but it’s even better at preventing them from happening in the first place (18th). A common thread of all of Tennessee's five losses is that those teams had Top 100 perimeter defenses: LSU (eighth), Kentucky (50th), Texas Tech (70th), Villanova (83rd), and Alabama (92nd).

So, we know Tennessee struggles defensively against high-end offenses (Texas ranks 33rd) and it struggles offensively against Top 100 perimeter defenses (Texas ranks 65th).

Prediction: Texas -3.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The total of 126.5 is staggering low, but it is not unfamiliar territory for the Longhorns. Texas has played in eight straight games with a total below 130 and has played 5-3 to the Over during that time. Tennessee has had a total under that mark just once and played firmly Under it by 17 points.

If we stretch the parameter out further, Tennessee has seen ten totals set below 140 this season and has played 7-3 to the Under in those games. And more broadly, the Vols have played 10-4 to the Under in their last 14.

Matchup-wise, we know Tennessee doesn't have a lot of avenues to ramp up the scoring against a suffocating and disciplined Longhorns defense. Texas, on the other hand, finds a lot of its offensive success through efficiency and most certainly not through volume. It ranks outside the Top 200 in total scoring, 2-point attempts, 3-point attempts, and free throw attempts. In totality, the Longhorns take the 33rd fewest field goal attempts per game in the nation.

Prediction: Under 126.5 (-110)

Best bet

In a sport populated by 358 programs, there are more opportunities to take advantage of matchups. Saturday's Big 12/SEC challenge between the Volunteers and Longhorns provides that exact opportunity.

Tennessee's once "elite" defense will once again be tested by high-end offensive efficiency and its track record in that situation does not generate a lot of hope for today. Tennessee's volume-dependent perimeter offense will once again be tested by high-end perimeter defensive efficiency, and its track record in that situation also does not generate a lot of hope for today.

Pick: Texas -3.5 (-110)

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