Texas A&M and Florida will face off in a matchup between ranked opponents, as the Aggies and Gators meet at The O’Connell Center tonight.
The Aggies are hoping to end a three-game skid that has seen them slide out of the Top 4 in the conference standings. Meanwhile, the Gators know a win could secure a double-bye in the upcoming SEC Tournament, as well as strengthen their claim on a potential two-seed in the big dance.
My Texas A&M vs Florida predictions break down why the Aggie offense will be in for a rough night. Read more in my college basketball picks for Saturday, March 1.
Texas A&M vs Florida prediction
My best bet
Texas A&M team total Under 69.5 (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The Texas A&M Aggies are such an odd team offensively. They sit 54th in adjusted offensive efficiency, despite ranking 312th in eFG% and 325th in 3-point%.
They’re able to achieve that high efficiency because they force turnovers, maximize possessions, and get to the free-throw line. Their 41.8% offensive rebound rate is the best in college basketball, and they rank fourth in the SEC in getting to the charity stripe.
But even with second and sometimes third chances, there’s no guarantee the Aggies can produce. Their 77-69 defeat to Tennessee last week saw them pull in 40% of their missed shots, as they posted an ADJOE mark of 127.6 — their third-best outing of 2025.
And while the Aggies scored 84 points against Vanderbilt behind an offensive rebound rate of 41.9%, they had just 62 points heading into the final two minutes. Those final two minutes took nearly 40 minutes of real time to play as it turned into a parade of free throws and video reviews, severely inflating the final totals.
The Florida Gators rank fourth in the SEC in defensive rebound rate since conference play began and are third in eFG% defense. The Gators have held SEC opponents to under 55% finishing at the rim, and it helps having Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu both standing 6-foot-11 and posting block rates over 5%.
At the other end, Florida is a strong offensive rebounding team — which extends its possessions while limiting those for the opposition. The Aggies struggle mightily to make outside shots, and the Gators have bodies inside that can limit A&M’s ability to crash the glass.
The Gators rank 83rd in rim and 3-point rate defense according to ShotQuality, and 130th in FT rate defense. Without the ability to stretch the Gator defense, it’s hard to see the road team having a strong offensive showing.
Entering tonight, the Aggies are averaging just 67.7 points per game on the road against SEC opponents, which is nearly eight points less than they manage at home. The Gators have held four straight opponents below 70 points in four of their last five games, and I’ll back them to shut down A&M.
Texas A&M vs Florida same-game parlay (SGP)
Texas A&M team total Under 69.5
Alijah Martin 2+ threes
Walter Clayton Jr. Over 4.5 assists
The Aggies sit 359th in 3-point rate allowed, and their SEC opponents have attempted nearly half of their shots from beyond the arc. They also rank 358th in defensive spacing according to ShotQuality, with opponents making better than 59% of open outside shots.
Alijah Martin won’t hesitate to let fly from deep. He shoots 37.1% from beyond the arc at home and has hit at least two 3-point shots in four straight games. I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t push that streak to five.
Meanwhile, the Aggies rank dead last in SEC play in assist rate allowed, with opponents dropping a dime on 71.3% of made field goals. The Gators are fifth in the conference with a 53.2% rate, and Walter Clayton Jr. is the straw that stirs their drink.
Florida’s leading scorer is also leading the team with four assists per game, and the Gators love to let it fly from deep. Clayton should be able to find plenty of open shooters, and if the likes of Martin are making their shots, he’ll easily get to his floor of five assists.
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Texas A&M vs Florida odds
Texas A&M vs Florida live odds
Texas A&M vs Florida opening odds
- Spread: Texas A&M +9.5 (-110) | Florida -9.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Texas A&M +400 | Florida -550
- Over/Under: Over 148.5 (-105) | Under 148.5 (-115)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Texas A&M vs Florida betting trend to know
Florida has covered the spread in 15 of its last 22 home games (+7.35 Units / 30% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas A&M vs. Florida.
How to watch Texas A&M vs Florida
| Location | Stephen C. O'Connell Center, Gainesville, FL |
| Date | Saturday, 3-1-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | SECN |
Texas A&M vs Florida key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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