Texas A&M vs Florida SEC Tournament Picks and Predictions: Gators Have The X-Factor Inside

The second round of the SEC Tournament tips off at noon on Thursday as the Florida Gators face off against the Texas A&M Aggies.

This is a clash between the No. 9 and No. 8 seeds and after a razor-close game between these two last month, college basketball betting lines opened with the Gators as slim 1.5-point favorites for the rematch.

Here are our favorite Florida vs. Texas A&M college basketball picks and predictions for March 10. 

Texas A&M vs Florida odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

This line hit the board on Wednesday with the Gators installed at -1.5, with the Over/Under at 134 or 134.5 depending on the book. Both lines remain at opening as of writing.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Texas A&M vs Florida predictions

• Prediction: Florida -1.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 134.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Florida -1.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 3/09/2022 at 11:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Texas A&M vs Florida game info

• Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL
• Date: Thursday, March 10, 2022
• Tip-off: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: SECN

Texas A&M at Florida betting preview

Injuries

Texas A&M: Jason Jitoboh C (Out).
Florida: Marcus Williams G (Out).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up loss. Find more NCAA betting trends for Texas A&M vs. Florida.

Texas A&M vs Florida picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

The Gators and Aggies were among five SEC teams that finished in a tie for fifth place in the SEC standings. Texas A&M had a slightly better overall record (20-11 to 19-12), thanks to a 56-55 win against the Gators in College Station on February 15.

Both teams shot the ball poorly in that contest, and although Florida pulled four points ahead with less than two minutes on the clock, it collapsed at the end with a dumb foul on a 3-point attempt. 

After that game, Texas A&M lost to Vanderbilt before ending the regular season with four straight wins and covers —  including an 87-71 road victory against Alabama. The Gators finished the regular season with a 3-2 straight up and against the spread stretch, which included an upset of No. 2 Auburn and a close defeat to Arkansas (Florida lost 82-74, but was within a single point with 1:30 left in the game).

The Gators shoot like stormtroopers from beyond the arc (sitting outside the Top 300 with a 31.1 3-point percentage), but they're much more efficient inside, shooting 52.9% from 2-point range with that number bumping up to 54.2% over their last four games. They should have some success in the interior against a Texas A&M side that plays with one of the smallest lineups in the Power Six conferences. 

Another factor to consider is that the Gators only had to travel two hours from Gainsville to arrive in Tampa, and Texas A&M will likely be playing in a hostile environment at Amalie Arena despite the "neutral site" designation. 

Add in the fact that the Gators turn the ball over less, foul at a lower rate, and are better at the free-throw line, and they have all the ingredients to take this contest in a revenge spot. 

Prediction: Florida -1.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

These teams combined for just 111 points when they previously met up, with the Gators, shooting 29% from the floor, and the Aggies going a pathetic 2-18 from 3-point range.

While it seems unlikely that both teams shoot quite as poorly this time around, they've been pretty inept when it comes to shooting all season, so totaling an additional 24 points might be a tad ambitious. 

The Gators also rank 300th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom and hold foes to just 65.5 points per game. The Aggies don't play a whole lot faster and limit opponents to 66.7 ppg on 42.3 FG%. 

We're expecting another close game between these two programs and backing another low-scoring battle where every possession matters. 

Prediction: Under 134.5 (-110)

Best bet

There are a few reasons we like the Gators in this one, as we explained above. The revenge angle is nice, as is the fact that this will almost feel like a home game to the Gainsville Gang.

Colin Castleton, who leads Florida with 16.4 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks per game will also be a matchup nightmare for the Aggies' small frontcourt. 

The 6-foot-11 Castleton opted to get his teammates involved against bottom-feeder Georgia two weeks ago, but that's the only game in his last five where he scored fewer than 19 points, coming up big against Kentucky, Auburn, and Arkansas.

Upsetting a Top-5 team in the country in Auburn and fighting neck-and-neck against another Top-15 squad in Arkansas in recent weeks shows just how good this Gators squad can be when at its best. And that ceiling is higher than A&M. We're taking Florida here. 

Pick: Florida -1.5 (-110)

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