Texas Tech vs Iowa State Picks and Predictions: Cyclones Rebound After Suffering First Loss

There’s a huge Big 12 showdown going down in Ames on Wednesday night when the Iowa State Cyclones host the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Iowa State is coming off of its first loss of the season, so it’ll be interesting to see how the team responds in this one. 

Will the Cyclones get back on track in front of what should be a wild home crowd? Keep reading our free college basketball betting picks and predictions for Texas Tech vs. Iowa State to find out.

Texas Tech vs Iowa State odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Iowa State was a 1-point favorite when this game first became available, but the team is now laying 3.5 and 4 on most books. The total, meanwhile, has gone from 126.5 at open to either 127 or 127.5 in some places.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Texas Tech vs Iowa State predictions

• Prediction: Iowa State -3.5 (-115)
• Prediction: Over 126 (-114)
• Best bet: Iowa State -3.5 (-115)

Predictions made on 1/5/2022 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Texas Tech vs Iowa State game info

• Location: James H. Hilton Coliseum, Ames, IA
• Date: Wednesday, January 5, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPNU

Texas Tech at Iowa State betting preview

Injuries

Texas Tech: Terrence Shannon Jr. G (Out).
Iowa State: Jaden Walker G (Questionable).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Iowa State is 7-0 against the spread in its last seven games versus teams with winning percentages above 60%. Find more NCAA betting trends for Texas Tech vs. Iowa State.

Texas Tech vs Iowa State picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Many analysts projected Iowa State to finish last in the Big 12 before the season, but this team only just lost its first game of the year and it did so on January 1. That’s not bad at all and the Cyclones have already earned wins over Xavier, Memphis, Creighton, and Iowa this season. Now, they'll look to get right back into the win column against a Texas Tech team missing its leading scorer, Terrence Shannon Jr.

Iowa State is seventh in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, according to KenPom, which makes it hard to imagine the Red Raiders are going to be able to figure out how to attack this group without its best scorer. Guys like Kevin McCullar, Adonis Arms, and Davion Warren are plenty capable of rising to the occasion on most nights, but head coach T.J. Otzelberger’s team really works hard to defend on the perimeter. The Cyclones apply a ton of pressure on the ball and they swarm opposing frontcourts in the post, which is part of the reason why this team is able to get away with deploying so many smaller lineups. 

Offensively, the Cyclones haven’t been perfect, but they are showing improvement. The team has shot at least 47.2% from the field in each of its last three and will need to find a way to be better offensively heading into conference play. The maturation of freshman point guard Tyrese Hunter should help the Cyclones accomplish this. The young guard has the attention of NBA scouts and he should continue to get better as the season progresses. Look for him to make a big impact on this game with his ability to run the offense the right way and also attack the basket. 

Also, don’t be surprised if Gabe Kalscheur wakes up from deep rather soon. The former Minnesota player hit over 2.1 threes per game in his first two years in college. After a down year last season, it’s only a matter of time before he starts drilling shots at a high clip for Iowa State. Izaiah Brockington, a senior guard who transferred from Penn State, should also make a mark on this game. 

Prediction: Iowa State -3.5 (-115)

Over/Under analysis

If you look at all of your options, you should be able to find this total on the lower side, but don’t worry if you need to take it at 127.5. Even though these are two of the Top-10 defenses in all of college basketball, this number is simply too low for a pair of Big 12 teams averaging a combined 151.2 points per game this season. And while you can question the type of opponents these two have faced to get to that number, it’s worth noting that the Cyclones scored 72 against Baylor last game, and the Bears have the fifth-best adjusted defensive efficiency in the nation. 

Six of the last seven games played between Texas Tech and Iowa State would have gone Over tonight’s number, and the last three between these two have been pretty high scoring. The Over has hit in two of those three games, with the teams combining to average 144.7 points per showdown. Don’t be surprised if they score at least 135 tonight. Over the last three seasons, the Over is 9-4-1 when the total is 129.5 or less in Texas Tech games. 

Prediction: Over 126 (-114)

Best bet

These two are pretty evenly matched on a good day, but it’s hard to expect the Red Raiders to roll into Ames and win without Shannon. The big wing could have been a big help on both ends of the floor, and Texas Tech is going to miss him — even if the team has been able to find ways to win without him against lesser competition. 

This season, the Cyclones are 6-0 against the spread when facing teams that outscore their opponents by 4.0 or more points per game. They’ve won those games by an average margin of 12.5 points per game. Iowa State is also 8-0 against the spread versus teams that win 80% of their games or better since the start of last year. 

Pick: Iowa State -3.5 (-110)

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