Texas Tech vs Iowa State Big 12 Tournament Picks and Predictions: Red Raiders Roll Against Cyclones

The Iowa State Cyclones (20-11, 7-11) are no longer the team that was once undefeated and ranked eighth in the nation, but they still have put together an incredibly admirable season given expectations.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders (23-8, 12-6) stumbled to close the season, losing two of their last three and both to unranked opponents, but their track record has shown that they can take care of business when it matters most.

Can Iowa State draw from their early-season successes or will Texas Tech put their foot down in the opening round of the Big 12 tournament? Continue reading for free college basketball picks and analysis for the Iowa State vs Texas Tech matchup on March 10, 2022.

Texas Tech vs Iowa State odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Texas Tech opened as 7.5 point favorites and have since moved to -8. The total opened at 125 and moved to as low as 122.5, but has since moved to 125.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Texas Tech vs Iowa State predictions

• Prediction: Texas Tech -8 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 125.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Texas Tech -8 (-110)

Predictions made on 3/10/2022 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Texas Tech vs Iowa State game info

• Location: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO
• Date: Thursday, March 10, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2

Texas Tech at Iowa State betting preview

Injuries

Texas Tech: None. 
Iowa State: None. 

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Texas Tech is 4-1 against the spread when favored by eight or more points against Big 12 opponents. Find more NCAA betting trends for Texas Tech vs. Iowa State.

Texas Tech vs Iowa State picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Iowa State has had a rollercoaster of a season. After starting 12-0 and being one of the remaining undefeated teams to start the season, the Cyclones went on to lose nine of their next 13 games. That stretch of their schedule was admittedly not kind, but they also mixed in losses to the likes of West Virginia, Kansas State, and Missouri.

Morale was understandably low at that time considering there was a real buzz during the days when Iowa State climbed to as high as eighth in the AP poll. The Cyclones then strung together four straight wins in the latter half of February, and hope began to materialize once again.

But just as that was happening Iowa State rattled off two losses to end the regular season, including a season-ending seven-point loss on the road to Baylor. Ahead of them on Thursday night is another tough opponent in Texas Tech, who similarly stumbled through the end of their schedule by losing two of their last three - both times to unranked opponents.

For the most part, Texas Tech had put together a very impressive 2022 campaign. After opening their Big 12 schedule with a loss to none other than Iowa State, the Red Raiders have since lost just one other time to ranked opponents - a double-overtime three-point nailbiter on the road against Kansas. Along the way, they picked up wins against Kansas (in the first matchup), Iowa State (in the rematch), Baylor (twice), and Texas (twice).

The Red Raiders are led by senior forward Bryson Williams (14.0 PPG), who serves as a threat on all three levels of the court. He shoots 42.9% from three (team-best), 45.1% on two-point jumpers (only Marcus Santos-Silva shoots better on comparable volume), and 64.8% at the rim. Williams is joined by Terrence Shannon (10.4 PPG), Davion Warren (10.1 PPG), and assists leader Kevin McCullar (10.0 PPG).

McCullar's status for the game was largely up in the air until first-year head coach Mark Adams indicated earlier today that McCullar would indeed play. Iowa State isn't anywhere near as balanced, with senior guard Izaiah Brockington (17.5 PPG, 7.2 RPG) nearly doubling the next highest scorer and rebounder on the team.

Brockington is an understated perimeter threat with his 39.2% percentage there, as he opts for that shot on just 18% of his volume. He largely settles for two-point jumpers (54% of shots) and is admittedly pretty good there (team-leading 41.7%).

True freshman Tyrese Hunter (10.8 PPG) is the only other player averaging double digits and is doing it while shooting 38.8% from the field, somewhat of a testament to a Cyclones offense that ranks 133rd in KenPom offensive efficiency.

Given that Texas Tech's defense ranks first in KenPom defensive efficiency, Iowa State's offense figures to have a harder time than Texas Tech's 52nd ranked offense will against Iowa State's tenth-ranked defense.

Prediction: Texas Tech -8 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Tonight's total of 125.5 is not familiar territory by any means for either of these teams. Iowa State has seen just three totals at or below Thursday's mark and Texas Tech has seen it just once. Iowa State has played 11-7 to the Over in conference games and Texas Tech has played 10-8 the same way.

The Cyclones had some stinkers on offense as of late, scoring just 36 points two games ago and 54 in consecutive games two weeks prior to that. Texas Tech also finished the season a bit deficient on offense, averaging 63.4 points in their final five games. These two teams did play to just a combined 98 points in the first meeting, but they also did put up 132 in the second meeting.

The number is certainly abnormally low, but given that both teams' defenses profile much better than their offenses while taking into account that both teams have struggled offensively as of late, the Under is the right play.

Prediction: Under 125.5 (-110)

Best bet

March is always full of craziness and given how strong and closely contested the Big 12 has been this season, there is arguably no better candidate for an environment subject to some upsets. Given the makeup of these two teams and what they've put on paper, Iowa State simply cannot be counted on to turn in a high-end performance as reliably as Texas Tech can be.

The Red Raiders have taken care of business when it comes to games like these. In conference games where they have been favored by eight or more points, they have gone 4-1 against the spread. In a lot of ways, Texas Tech is just a better version of Iowa State. Both teams are heavily skewed towards their defensive strength, but Texas Tech currently reigns as the top-ranked defense in the conference and the nation.

Both teams lean on a primary scorer, but the Red Raiders support theirs with a much more expansive and efficient supporting cast. That lopsidedness on both sides of the ball lends its hands to a larger winning margin.

Pick: Texas Tech -8 (-110)

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