Texas Tech vs Texas Odds, Picks and Predictions: Teach Looks Dated on Saturday

The No. 10 Texas Longhorns will host a Texas Tech Red Raiders team on a four-game losing streak in a Big 12 matchup on Saturday night.

Texas (14-2) came from behind to beat TCU on Friday, and is now riding a two-game winning streak heading into tonight’s matchup. Texas Tech (10-6) has yet to win a game in Big 12 play, and was blown out 84-50 by Iowa State on Tuesday.

Texas has been playing with intensity on defense since it lost a shootout to the Kansas State Wildcats last week, and the Red Raiders could have a hard time breaking through in Austin. We’ll break down what that means for bettors in our college basketball picks and predictions for Texas Tech vs. Texas on January 14. 

Texas Tech vs Texas best odds

Texas Tech vs Texas picks and predictions

There’s no question that Texas has been playing inspired basketball since that loss to Kansas State. After allowing 116 points to the Wildcats, the Longhorns shut down the Oklahoma State Cowboys in a 56-46 slog, then put the clamps on TCU in the second half to come from behind and win 79-75 on Wednesday.

This is just the latest impressive stretch in what has been an excellent year for Texas basketball. The Longhorns have already posted a signature victory over the Gonzaga Bulldogs, and should remain in the hunt for a Big 12 title in what will be a highly competitive conference.

Texas has established itself as one of the better offensive teams in the country, scoring 82.1 points per game on the year. While some of that is due to a relatively weak schedule so far this season, the Longhorns also look good in advanced metrics, with Ken Pomeroy’s ratings putting Texas 14th in adjusted offensive efficiency. 

Marcus Carr leads the team with 17.3 points per game, but Tyrese Hunter (11.3 ppg) and Timmy Allen (10.6 ppg) are also in double figures. Texas has plenty of other contributors on the offensive end as well, with senior guard Sir’Jabari Rice chipping in 9.9 ppg since transferring in. 

The Longhorns are also solid on the defensive end. Texas holds opponents to 65.8 points a night, and given that they’ve played some high-tempo games this season, that number is even better than it looks. KenPom has Texas as the No. 27 team in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, a combination that will make the Longhorns a tough test for anyone they play this season. 

That makes this an especially difficult matchup for the struggling Red Raiders. Texas Tech isn’t a bad team by any stretch, but it hasn’t found any success in the Big 12 yet. 

Part of that has been the schedule. The Red Raiders played TCU and the Kansas Jayhawks both within single digits, then lost to the Oklahoma Sooners by five at home in what was likely their softest game of the conference schedule so far. However, Tech is now coming off a brutal 34-point loss at Iowa State, which could be a sign of what to expect tonight.

Texas does everything on the court better than Texas Tech, and the Longhorns are playing especially well right now. While the Red Raiders are a solid team all around, there’s nothing they do that Texas hasn’t seen in a more dangerous form and handled already this season. With Texas at home, I’m taking the Longhorns to cover without too much difficulty.

My best bet: Texas -8.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Texas Tech vs Texas spread analysis

Texas opened this game as a 9-point favorite. While you can still find that line at some books, the majority of lines have come down a half-point, with Texas -8.5 now the consensus spread.

Neither of these teams has played particularly well against the spread this year. Texas is just 6-10 ATS, while the Red Raiders are a similar 5-10-1. 

One aspect I didn’t get into much in the above section was the extent of Texas’ home-court advantage. The Longhorns are 10-1 at home this year, with the only loss coming to a solid Illinois Fighting Illini squad early in the season. Meanwhile, Texas Tech only has two road games on the year, losing both of them in conference play.

I think just about everyone expects Texas to find a way to win this game, but the relatively large spread might be scaring off some bettors who want to back the Longhorns. However, Texas would be a better team on a neutral court. Throw in home-court advantage and the fact that they’re playing much better basketball than the Red Raiders right now, and I’m eagerly backing the Longhorns to cover at -8.5 tonight.

Texas Tech vs Texas Over/Under analysis

Tonight’s total opened at 142.5. That number remains largely unchanged, though you can find some books willing to give you 141.5 if you’re looking to back the Over.

Given what we’ve seen from these two teams lately, I’m not sure that’s the way to go. In conference play, three of Texas Tech’s four games have gone Under 140 points, with only their 75-72 loss to Kansas (147 total points) ending up above tonight’s number. 

Meanwhile, Texas’ numbers are skewed a bit by that 116-103 loss to Kansas State. That game was entirely out of character for the Longhorns, who haven’t played another game that’s been anything like that this year. Sure, Texas played to 154 points in its victory over TCU. But most of that game was trending toward the Under, and only a late explosion from the Longhorns in the final minutes took the total up that high.

Given that Texas should be able to contain the Red Raiders, I don’t think the Longhorns will have to pick up the pace like they did against a TCU team that is among the best transition offenses in the country. These two teams are both more likely than not to play a lower-scoring game tonight, so I’m taking the Under at 142.5.

Texas Tech vs Texas betting trend to know

Texas Tech is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine road games. Find more College basketball betting trends for Texas Tech vs. Texas Tech State.

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