The No. 20 Texas Longhorns (18-6, 7-4) will play their fifth straight game against a ranked opponent on Saturday when they lock up with the #10 Baylor Bears (20-4, 8-3). The Longhorns have weathered the storm thus far, picking up three wins against Tennessee, Iowa State, and Kansas, and their lone loss coming on the road to No. 9 Texas Tech.
Baylor is a week removed from an embarrassing 24-point loss against Kansas, but is ready for the next challenge after bouncing back on Wednesday with a win against Kansas State.
Continue reading for our free college basketball picks and predictions for Texas vs. Baylor on February 12th, 2022.
Texas vs Baylor odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Baylor opened as 5.5-point favorites, with a total of 129.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Texas vs Baylor predictions
Predictions made on 2/11/2022 at 6:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Texas vs Baylor game info
• Location: Ferrell Center, Waco, TX
• Date: Saturday, February 12, 2022
• Tip-off: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2
Texas at Baylor betting preview
Injuries
Texas: No injuries to report.
Baylor: LJ Cryer G (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Baylor is 1-4 against the spread in its last five games against teams ranked inside the Top 50 of KenPom. Find more NCAA betting trends for Texas vs. Baylor.
Texas vs Baylor picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The Baylor Bears once possessed, arguably, the best defense in the nation, but as of late, they've looked a little vulnerable. Now granted, a lot of that can be hand waved away due to the slew of injuries they've dealt with as of late (James Akinjo, Adam Flagler, LJ Cryer, and Jeremy Sochan) but at some point, the onus falls on Scott Drew and his team.
Letting Alabama (11th ranked KenPom offense) and Kansas (third) pour it on with 87 and 83 points is a little worrisome when trying to position yourself as a legitimate contender. But allowing offenses outside the Top 50 to score 70+ — such as Oklahoma (63rd in KenPom offense), West Virginia (101st), and Iowa State (149th) — surely takes them out of consideration of being the top defense. They currently sit 13th in KenPom defense, which is an appreciable fall from the top spot they once occupied.
Meanwhile, Chris Beard has taken his defensive emphasis to the Longhorns in his first year and has the Longhorns allowing the fewest points in the nation (55.8 per game). While Texas uses the “No Middle" defense to Baylor's, he adds in more wrinkles to give opposing offenses headaches. Whereas Baylor is typically very rigid in not allowing the ball to go towards the middle, Beard opts to be more dynamic in his disruption.
When the ball starts on the wing and the on-ball defender recognizes that the play action is intended to stay on his side, he will aggressively deny the strong side and invite the ball-handler to go towards the middle. Off-ball defenders (especially weak side ones) play tight and often in front of their man, cutting off direct passing lanes. With these actions, the intent is to put the ball handler in conflict. They can try to force the intended play, but that lends its hands to turnovers (Texas ranks 27th).
Alternatively, they can stray from the intended play. Passing is likely not an option since off-ball defenders are cutting off passing lanes. Driving isn't a great option because the interior defender is playing in front of his man, meaning they're closer to closing out on a potential drive. That leaves the ball-handler with the options of creating an outside shot of their own or just resetting the ball altogether. The former is likely inefficient, while the latter creates an additional offensive barrier of playing against the shot clock. It's no surprise then that Texas allows the fourth-fewest field goal attempts in the nation, including the 13th fewest three-point attempts.
The one way to exploit this defense is by getting entry passes over the interior defender, who is in front of their man. This is why the Longhorns rank 124th in field goal percentage allowed at the rim compared to elsewhere on the court. That weakness isn't one that Baylor should be expected to exploit. In terms of shot mix of the three levels, Baylor ranks 341st in percentage of shots at the rim.
Prediction: Texas +5.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
In hindsight, we should have gone into this season expecting the Longhorns, in their first year under Chris Beard, to provide value on the Under in the market. Texas played 9-3 to the Under in its first twelve games, with an average total of 136.5. Since then, the market has seemingly caught up: Baylor has played 5-7 to the Under in its last 12 on an average total of 124.7. Its last total of 132.5 was the first 130+ total in the new calendar year.
While the Longhorns may possess an efficient offense (38th in KenPom), it certainly isn't one that drives volume. The Longhorns have averaged just 68.7 points per game this season, which ranks 246th nationally. Make no mistake, they have the matchup edge in regard to the spread — it's just not expected of them to engage in a shootout-like game.
Baylor, in its own right, has been playing under totals as of late, going 7-3 to the Under in its last ten. Part of that has been struggles offensively, scoring 65 or less in the four games during that span. And while it has shown defensive lapses from time to time, to its credit, it has also held teams to under 70 points seven times in that stretch as well.
Prediction: Under 129.5 (-110)
Best bet
It shouldn't be mistaken Baylor undoubtedly has the talent and the track record of a national championship contender. As of late, however, it has seemingly played to a ceiling. A team that was once 15-0 fresh off of a national championship has now lost four of its last nine, failing in particular in all three of its higher-level tests (Texas Tech, Alabama, and Kansas).
Unfortunately for the Bears, Texas is cut from that same cloth. The Longhorns, too, have talent, and they have a hell of a coach as well to boot in Beard. There is obviously no way to tell for sure, but it wouldn't be a far cry to think that Beard feels like he missed a golden opportunity in last year's Big Dance given that his Texas Tech team fell in the second round. That loss robbed Beard of any chance to match up in a potential South region final against Baylor, and obviously, the rest is history.
It obviously won't compare, and Beard has plenty of time and great rosters ahead of him to accomplish what he ultimately wants, but a win on Saturday would undoubtedly be quite a big one for Chris Beard and the Texas Longhorns.
Pick: Texas +5.5 (-110)
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