Texas vs Baylor Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bears Rebound From Back-to-Back Losses

Texas is tied with Kansas atop the Big 12 standings and faces a difficult road test in Waco this weekend.

Baylor is hell-bent on revenge after dropping the initial meeting between these two teams at the end of January. 

Will the Bears get even, or will the Longhorns take a step forward in their quest for a regular-season Big 12 title?

Check out our college basketball picks for the Texas Longhorns and Baylor Bears on Saturday, February 25 below to find out.

Texas vs Baylor best odds

Texas vs Baylor picks and predictions

The Longhorns are coming off a dominant 72-54 victory over Iowa State on Tuesday. They’ve won three of their last four games to improve to 15-5 under interim head coach Rodney Terry.

Baylor has faltered to the tune of back-to-back losses. Scott Drew’s team was one of the hottest squads in the country prior to its recent slip-ups, as the Bears had won 10 of their last 11 before dropping 87-71 at Kansas and then most recently falling 75-65 at Kansas State.

KenPom doesn’t see a whole lot separating these two squads. Texas checks in at ninth overall — 12th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 30th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Baylor ranks 14th overall — second in adjusted offensive efficiency but lagging behind at 94th in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

Baylor will be glad to return home, where it has amassed a 16-1 record this season (and is 5-1 ATS in its last six). From a betting perspective, Texas has been brutal on the road dating back to last season, going just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 away games. 

This is a good spot for Baylor to grab revenge for this first matchup. I’m not going to fault Drew’s side for its two most recent losses on the road against the two Kansas schools, as those are two difficult games against top-notch teams. 

Baylor was red hot before those two games and will be motivated to get even with Texas. I’d play the Bears up to -4.

My best bet: Baylor -3 (-110 at BetRivers)

Texas vs Baylor spread analysis

Baylor is a profitable 9-6 ATS at home this season. This team has a fantastic trio of guards in Keyonte George (16.9 ppg), Adam Flagler (15.6 ppg), and LJ Cryer (14.9 ppg). 

The Longhorns are led by a bevy of transfers, as the Top 6, in terms of points per game, all joined the team via the portal at some point in their respective careers. Marcus Carr (17.0 ppg),  Sir'Jabari Rice (12.1 ppg), and Timmy Allen (10.8 ppg) are the three players averaging double figures per game. 

This matchup has tended to favor home-court advantage, as the home team has covered in six straight meetings between these two schools. 

Texas vs Baylor Over/Under analysis

Texas averages 79.4 ppg on offense, shooting a strong percentage both from the field (47.6%, 34th nationally) and from the free throw line (74.7%, 61st nationally). 

Baylor’s defense has been giving Drew trouble all season. The Bears rank just 278th in field goal defense, allowing opponents to connect on 45.2% of their looks from the field. 

Baylor remains a dangerous team because its offense is simply elite. The Bears average 78.0 ppg while grading out as one of the most efficient units in the country in advanced metrics. 

Texas is decent defensively but not tremendous. The Longhorns rank 112th in field goal defense (42.6%) and 121st in 3-point defense (32.7%)

The pace is not anticipated to be too crazy in this spot, as Baylor checks in at 229th in adjusted tempo (KenPom) and should look to establish its methodical pace at home. 

I agree with the early money on the Under but I’m not in a rush to chase any steam, considering both offenses can put up points in a hurry and Baylor has defensive liabilities. 

Texas vs Baylor betting trend to know

Texas is 3-8 ATS in games away from home this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas vs. Baylor.

Texas vs Baylor game info

Texas vs Baylor key injuries

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