The Iowa State Cyclones started the season with 12 straight wins. However, Iowa State has now dropped three of its last four games and will now take on another tough test, at home against the Texas Longhorns.
The Cyclones can no longer feast on a non-conference slate and instead have to play a gauntlet in the Big 12. So far, the Cyclones haven’t been able to hold up, although they lost by just one point to Kansas, on the road, Tuesday.
Will Iowa State get a win against another elite Big 12 team? Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for Texas vs. Iowa State on Saturday, January 15.
Texas vs Iowa State odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Longhorns have opened up as 2-point favorites. Since opening, Texas has been bet up to 2.5. The total opened at 121 and has options of 120.5, 121, and 121.5 at multiple sportsbooks, so make sure to shop around.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Texas vs Iowa State predictions
Predictions made on 1/14/2022 at 10:55 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Texas vs Iowa State game info
• Location: James H. Hilton Coliseum, Ames, IA
• Date: Saturday, January 15, 2022
• Tip-off: 2:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN+
Texas at Iowa State betting preview
Injuries
Texas: Jase Febres G (Questionable), Tre Mitchell C (Questionable).
Iowa State: Jaden Walker G (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Texas vs. Iowa State.
Texas vs Iowa State picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The Longhorns have been without center Tre Mitchell in their last two games. But there’s potential that he returns to action in this game against Iowa State.
That should help on both ends of the court, as he’s contributed over nine points and four rebounds per game in 19.1 minutes a game.
Offensively, Texas is shooting an effective field goal percentage of 52.6% while also turning the ball over just 16.8% of the time. The Longhorns are very capable of dominating the offensive glass, earning 32.9% offensive rebounds on the season.
From long-range, Texas is hitting 33% of looks and from inside, the Longhorns have shot 54.3% on the season. But offensively, it’s going to be a challenge going up against Iowa State’s defense.
The Cyclones have held opponents to a 44.7% effective field goal percentage while also earning 26% turnovers on the season. Because of the aggressiveness by Iowa State, the Cyclones will send teams to the line at a high rate, but that’s the price they’re willing to pay.
Opponents have also shot just 26.5% from long range against Iowa State this season and 47.7% from inside the arc. So, it’s really never easy against Iowa State’s defense.
On the other hand, Iowa State has struggled on the offensive end. Despite having an effective field goal percentage of 51.2%, Iowa State has turned the ball over 20.5% percent of the time. Therefore, those turnovers that the Cyclones earn don’t mean as much.
The Cyclones have also hit 34.3% from three and 51% from inside the arc. These are above-average numbers, but nothing more than that. Plus, Texas is just as good of a defense as Iowa State.
The Longhorns have earned 26.7% turnovers on the season and have held teams to a 44.6% effective field goal percentage.
Both defenses have been spectacular this season, but I’d rather roll with Texas in this game. The Longhorns have the much more consistent offense and while it’ll be a challenge on the road, Texas and all other Big 12 teams better get used to playing challenging road games.
Prediction: Texas -2 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Again, both of these two teams are in the top 10 in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Iowa State is 135th in the nation when it comes to offensive efficiency.
Both defenses are capable of forcing a whole bunch of turnovers and Texas loves to play in the half-court and waste time on the offensive end. The Longhorns have used 18.6 seconds per possession this season, which is 308th in college basketball.
I know the total is already extremely low, but scared money doesn’t make money. Take the under 121.5.
Prediction: Under 121.5 (-110)
Best bet
I’m sticking with Texas -2. We already know that lines are starting to shift to -2.5 in the first place. On top of that, both defenses are stellar, but only Texas has the consistent offense in this game.
It’s going to be tough on the road, and Iowa State certainly has an advantage in that regard, but with Tre Mitchell potentially returning the lineup for the Longhorns, Texas is in good shape for this road tilt against Iowa State.
Take Texas -2 before it gets to -2.5 or -3.
Pick: Texas -2 (-110)
Did you know that if you parlayed our Texas vs. Iowa State picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?
Use our college basketball parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
