The Kansas Jayhawks' matchup on Saturday with the Texas Longhorns has a lot at stake. Kansas is currently tied with Baylor for the Big 12 regular-season crown, but their mission is simple when referencing the Big 12 tie-breaking criteria: win and they take home the regular-season championship.
Of course, Kansas' aspirations are much larger than that, but a win on Saturday and a good run in the Big 12 tournament would help improve its seeding outlook for the Big Dance. The Longhorns, however, are not simply going to lay down.
Continue reading for more free college basketball picks and predictions for Texas vs Kansas on March 5th.
Texas vs Kansas odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Kansas opened as a 6.5 point favorite and has remained at that number. Conversely, the total opened at 141 and has already been bet down to 137.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Texas vs Kansas predictions
Predictions made on 3/4/2022 at 9:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Texas vs Kansas game info
• Location: Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, KS
• Date: Saturday, March 5, 2022
• Tip-off: 4:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Texas at Kansas betting preview
Injuries
Texas: None.
Kansas: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Kansas has played 7-4 to the Under in its last 11. Find more NCAA betting trends for Texas vs. Kansas.
Texas vs Kansas picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Longhorns have flipped the script since they beat Kansas back in early February. That win came in the middle of a stretch where Texas played six ranked opponents over the course of seven games. Of those first four games, it managed to win three of them, against the likes of Tennessee, Iowa State, and then Kansas. Since then, the Longhorns have lost each game they have played against ranked opponents, dropping to Texas Tech and Baylor twice.
Even ignoring the actual results of those games, Texas' offensive performances against elevated competition has been worrisome. Outside of scoring 79 against Kansas, they have failed to eclipse 64 points in the other six most recent games against ranked opponents. Granted the Big 12 is full of defensive powerhouses like Texas Tech (2nd in KenPom defense) and Baylor (11th), and drawing Tennessee (3rd) in the Big 12 / SEC challenge did no favors as well, but at some point, Chris Beard needs to get more even performances from his offense if it hopes to pose a serious threat in the Big 12 tournament and the Big Dance.
Despite all of that, advanced metrics have given Texas' offense quite a bit of a mulligan in regards to where it stands and what it has shown. The Longhorns aren't a particularly efficient team, ranking seventh in the Big 12 in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage, and their pace is nothing to write home about either, managing below average field goal attempts (sixth). In spite of this, KenPom has the Longhorns pegged as the 29th-best offense according to adjusted efficiency metrics.
The Longhorns maintaining that favorable of a mark is likely why the market (which is largely an amalgamation of data sources like KenPom) has been noticeably off when it comes to the Longhorns for those paying close attention. Texas has managed just a 4-10 record against the spread in its last 14, including a current four-game losing streak against the number.
But, as many Big 12 enthusiasts know, Texas' primary strength is its defense. It allows the second-fewest points in Big 12 play (65.1 PPG) in a conference full of defensive powerhouses. The Horns are particularly aggressive at denying passes to open perimeter shooters, so while they manage just an average mark in terms of three-point shooting clip (32.8%), the damage they do is more from limiting volume — the 16.1 attempts from deep they allow per game is the lowest in the conference.
But therein lies the problem. The Jayhawks opt for a three on just 33.4% of their shots when looking at shot mix on the three levels, which ranks 281st in the nation. They largely win by being hyper-efficient at the rim, shooting 66.2% there for the 19th-best mark in the nation. And if teams start sagging too much towards the paint, Kansas is more than capable of punishing teams with long twos, ranking 82nd in the nation in field goal percentage on those shots.
Prediction: Kansas -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Chris Beard is a great defensive mind, and his track record more than certainly backs that up. And while he may have found a new home with the Longhorns, the Big 12 is largely familiar with his work given that he made his move coming from Texas Tech. Some of the better offenses have gotten the better of Beard in their first outing against him, but Beard has typically come back with adjustments that have led to drastically different results.
After shooting 49% from three in the first matchup, Texas allowed just two threes in the rematch. Iowa State shot 44% from deep en route to 79 points, but Texas again held them to two threes and just 41 points the second time around. To keep the theme running, Texas Tech shot 42% from three and put up 77 in the first matchup, then made just three deep balls in a 61-point effort. And lastly, after Baylor put up 80 in its first game against Beard, he came right back and held the Bears to 68.
If that creates some concern regarding Kansas covering the number, don't let it. Despite those two defensive performances against Texas Tech and Baylor in the second go-around, Texas had disappointing offensive performances and failed to win or cover in both instances. More importantly, they went Under the number in both cases.
Prediction: Under 137.5 (-110)
Best bet
And that may ultimately be what dooms the Longhorns. Beard may be a little too defense-focused to hone in on how Texas can maintain an edge on offense like they did when they managed to put up 79 in the last contest. Without the same level of effort or care on that end of the ball, Beard will be bringing in an offense ill-prepared for a quietly good Jayhawks defense that ranks a respectable 40th in KenPom ratings.
On top of losing to Baylor last week, Kansas managed to put up some troublesome performances against TCU in a home-and-home set on Tuesday and Thursday, managing to win just one of the two - and only by four. It stands to reason that after three disappointing performances Bill Self will make sure the Jayhawks are in tip-top shape for Saturday. Kansas is firmly a two seed at this point and opportunities to add to their resume ahead of Selection Sunday are running thin.
Pick: Kansas -6.5 (-110)
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