Texas vs Oklahoma Picks and Predictions: Back Sooners as Home Underdogs

Doubt the Oklahoma Sooners at your own risk. Despite their record, they've played well of late and are quietly in the conversation for March Madness. Our betting picks like them to win as home underdogs against the Texas Longhorns, who don't travel well.

JD Yonke - Contributor at Covers.com
JD Yonke • Contributor
Feb 15, 2022 • 09:10 ET • 4 min read
Tanner Groves Oklahoma Sooners College Basketball
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The No. 20 Texas Longhorns (18-7) head to Norman to battle with the Oklahoma Sooners (14-11) tonight in Big 12 action. It’ll mark the second iteration of the Red River Rivalry on the hardwood this season after Texas won the first matchup 66-52 at home on Jan. 11.

Will the Sooners grab revenge Tuesday night at home, or will Texas prove to be the superior team?

Check out our college basketball betting picks and predictions for the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners on Tuesday, February 15 to find out.

Texas vs Oklahoma odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Texas is the slight road favorite, opening -1.5 and currently sitting at -1 across most books. It’s expected to be a low-scoring contest, with the total opening 124.5 and currently sitting at 125.5. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Texas vs Oklahoma predictions

Predictions made on 2/15/2022 at 8:25 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Texas vs Oklahoma game info

Location: Lloyd Noble Center, Norman, OK
Date: Tuesday, February 15, 2022
Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2

Texas at Oklahoma betting preview

Injuries

Texas: No injuries reported.
Oklahoma: Marvin Johnson G (Out), Bijan Cortes G (Questionable).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Sooners are 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 games as a home underdog. Find more NCAA betting trends for Texas vs. Oklahoma.

Texas vs Oklahoma picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Sooners have played top-notch competition closely in the last two games. First, they knocked off No. 9 Texas Tech 70-55 in impressive fashion. Then, they narrowly lost 71-69 to the Kansas Jayhawks, yet another top-ten team. 

Despite inconsistencies, Oklahoma has been playing good basketball of late. The Sooners have four wins over Top-15 teams this season, keeping them firmly in the mix during the NCAA Tournament bubble discussion. 

Porter Moser’s team won’t be scared by Texas’ record or ranking — it's faced difficult opposition all year long and has fought tough, record be damned. The Sooners are up to No. 28 in KenPom, the highest ranking for a double-digit loss team. 

It’ll be paramount for Oklahoma to cash in from downtown to pull off the win at home. The Sooners boast a perfect 12-0 record when shooting at least 35% from three. Texas does defend the three well (30.9% allowed), but it’s hard to imagine a repeat performance of the first matchup where Oklahoma went only 1 for 13 from deep. That was the Sooners’ worst shooting performance of the season — an outlier — and more shots should fall now that they’re at home.

Texas has been a different team at home than on the road. The Longhorns are a pristine 15-1 at home this season but are only 2-6 as the away team. They’ve been the favorite in most of those games and therefore haven’t performed well against the spread, going just 2-6 ATS on the road.

Texas has a clear weakness when it comes to generating offense, ranking 248th nationally in scoring offense by mustering just 68.4 points per game. Oklahoma is 47th in scoring defense, surrendering 63.9 points per game. A low-scoring game is expected with the total sitting at 125.5, which means only a few possessions could swing the outcome.

Oklahoma is a better team than its record indicates. The Sooners relish the role of a home underdog, going 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games when catching points in Norman. Some shooting regression is to be expected from the first matchup and Texas is a different team on the road. We like the Sooners to nab a home victory on Tuesday night.

Prediction: Oklahoma +1 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

This game is expected to be low-scoring, and that’s reflected in a total sitting at 125.5. But is that too low?

The pace will be terrifically slow. Texas plays at the 346th-fastest tempo per KenPom, while Oklahoma is only slightly ahead at 285th. This game will be a rock fight in which both sides look to rely on their defenses to pull out a narrow victory.

However, this total is simply too low for us to place an Under bet. We aren’t saying these teams will light up the scoreboard, but we see simply too small of a margin if hoping to cash an Under ticket.

Oklahoma is playing better basketball of late, shooting 49% against Texas Tech and 47% against Kansas. The Sooners will improve upon their 3-point shooting in the first matchup. Texas is certainly good defensively, but they can be scored on — Kansas scored 76 and Baylor dropped 80 on the Longhorns in the last two games, respectively.

Prediction: Over 125.5 (-110)

Best bet

We like Oklahoma to pick up the victory at home.

The spread seems short at first glance if looking at records, but there’s a lot more to the story. The Sooners have put together two good performances in a row and have beaten several top teams already this season. Now is their time to break through at home to strengthen their NCAA Tournament bid.

Pick: Oklahoma +1 (-110)

College basketball parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed our Texas vs. Oklahoma picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?

Use our college basketball parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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JD Yonke
Contributor

JD is a diehard college football fan with five years of experience writing betting and fantasy content for publications such as SportsGrid, Fantasy Points, Fantrax, and Devy Watch. An avid reader, he uses his inclination to look at things with an exhausting and in-depth, analytic viewpoint combined with a love for statistics and metrics to form a well-rounded handicapping approach.

e's an integral member of the niche (but growing!) college fantasy football community, twice traveling to Canton, OH for the Fantasy Football Expo as a member of the CFF King's Classic drafting squad. His specialization in college football DFS and prop betting taught him that there are exploitable markets to be found and that narrowing your focus is integral to being a profitable bettor.

A lifelong Californian who grew up playing baseball, basketball, football, and lacrosse, he's glad to share a passionate love for sports with this wonderful community.

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