The No. 13 seed Texas Longhorns take on the No. 4 seed Tennessee Volunteers in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals on Friday afternoon.
I'm not betting on the Longhorns to pull off another upset, but my Texas vs. Tennessee predictions do expect them to put up a fight early. Here are my best free college basketball picks for this conference tournament clash on March 14.
Who will win Texas vs Tennessee?
The Texas Longhorns pulled off upsets in the first two rounds of the tourney, but their run ends here. Texas finished 6-12 in conference play during the regular season and is at No. 42 in both the KenPom and NET ratings.
Meanwhile, the Tennessee Volunteers went 12-6 in SEC play and are the No. 5-ranked team in the country per KenPom and NET. They have a dominant defense and their offense is more than good enough to get the job done thanks to the experienced backcourt of Zakai Zeigler (13.1 ppg, 7.5 apg) and Chaz Lanier (17.9 ppg, 40.5 3PT%).
While I'm not bullish on the Vols covering as double-digit faves, they should be able to beat an overmatched Texas squad that will be exhausted due to playing it's third game in three days.
Texas vs Tennessee prediction
My best bet: Texas 1H +5.5 (-105 at bet365)
The Longhorns beat Vanderbilt as 2-point underdogs in the opening round before upsetting Texas A&M as 6-point pups last night. Texas built a big early lead against Vandy before going into cruise control, but the clash against the Aggies went into double overtime. That puts them in a tough spot today with many of their top players likely having tired legs.
Tennessee looks like a national title contender but hasn't been covering big spreads lately. The Volunteers are just 2-7 against the spread in their last nine games.
This is a Vols squad that has been elite on defense but inconsistent on offense, especially away from home where they have an ugly 42.7 FG%.
We've seen teams with double-byes come out a bit slow out of the gates as they shake off the rust and adjust to a new environment. Meanwhile, the teams that have already been playing in the tourney tend to have their offenses running smoothly from the start.
This is a Texas offense that has plenty of momentum entering this game. The Longhorns scored 79 points against the Commodores in the first round and shot 41% from deep with just six turnovers against an elite Texas A&M defense in Round 2.
I could see the Longhorns fading in the second half when fatigue catches up to them, but they should be able to keep things close in the opening frame.
Texas vs Tennessee same-game parlay (SGP)
Texas 1H +5.5
Under 1H 64.5
Tennessee moneyline
I'm expecting a slow start from this Tennessee offense, but it won't be easy for Texas' attack either. Not with the Vols boasting the top-rated defense in the country and allowing just 29.0 ppg in the first half — the third-lowest number among high-major schools.
The first half Under has cashed in 22 of the Longhorns last 35 games (+7.15 Units / 18% ROI).
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Texas vs Tennessee odds
Texas vs Tennessee live odds
Texas vs Tennessee opening odds
- Spread: Texas +10 | Tennessee -10
- Moneyline: Texas +400 | Tennessee -550
- Over/Under: Over 135 | Under 135
Odds courtesy of bet365
Texas vs Tennessee betting trend to know
Tennessee has only covered the first half spread in 15 of its last 36 games (-8.05 Units / -19% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas vs. Tennessee.
How to watch Texas vs Tennessee
| Location | Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN |
| Date | Friday, 3-14-2025 |
| Tip-off | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Texas vs Tennessee key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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