The No. 5 seeded Texas A&M Aggies take on the No. 13 seed Texas Longhorns in the second round of the SEC Tournament this afternoon.
The Aggies have flipped the switch in March over the last few years, and my Texas vs Texas A&M predictions bet on that to happen again.
Here are my free college basketball picks for this battle between Lone Star state schools on March 13.
Who will win Texas vs Texas A&M?
The Texas A&M Aggies lost four in a row towards the end of the regular season. However, they regained their swagger by knocking off No. 1 Auburn last week before beating LSU by 14 points on the road in their season finale.
The Aggies are at No. 14 in the latest coaches poll and rank No. 17 at KenPom while Texas checks in at No. 44. Texas A&M has gone 7-8 in Quad 1 games and 9-1 in Quad 2 games while Texas is 5-10 and 3-4 respectively.
The Longhorns are also playing on a back-to-back which is always tough for college teams. The Aggies opened as 6.5-point faves for good reason and should be able to grind out a win with their elite defense here.
Texas vs Texas A&M prediction
My best bet: Texas A&M -6 (-110 at bet365)
Buzz Williams knows how to get his team on the same page by the time the conference tournament rolls around. Williams guided Texas A&M as a No. 8 seed to the SEC Tournament finals and the NIT final in 2022.
Last year he once again took the Aggies to the conference tournament final before advancing to the second round of the NCAA tourney where they lost to No. 1 seed Houston in overtime. The Aggies are 21-8 straight up and 22-7 against the spread since the start of March over the last three years.
This is an Aggies squad built for postseason basketball, ranking eighth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom. During conference play, they led the SEC in opponent turnover rate (19.4%) and defensive rebounding rate while ranking second in opponent 2-point percentage (47.4%).
On offense, they struggle with shooting but still find ways to generate points. They have an experienced backcourt, dominate the offensive glass (first in the country in offensive rebounding rate), and get to the charity stripe (22nd in free throw rate).
On the other hand, Texas hasn't excelled in any area. Guard Tre Johnson can score at all three levels but the Longhorns still finished the regular season just 14th in the SEC in effective field goal percentage (48.3%) during conference play.
They've been even worse on the other end of the floor, ranking 14th in adjusted defense. The Longhorns beat Vanderbilt 79-72 in the first round last night but that was just their third win and second cover in their last 10 games.
The Aggies also destroyed the Longhorns by 20 points when these teams clashed in College Station in January. The Aggies lost by a single point in Austin later that month, but had a 14-point lead with six minutes remaining before collapsing. When they get up ahead this time, their suffocating defense will slam the door on any comeback.
Texas vs Texas A&M same-game parlay (SGP)
Texas A&M -5.5
Zhuric Phelps Over 12.5 points
Over 138.5
Zhuric Phelps is second on the Aggies in scoring with 14.3 points per game. The senior guard is coming off a quiet performance against LSU but had scored at least 13 points in his previous five games.
Phelps should be able to eclipse 12.5 points against a Texas side that has been awful on defense lately, surrendering 82.8 ppg in its last 10 contests.
The Longhorns have been torched on defense but have also upped their offensive output lately. That has resulted in the Over cashing in 10 of their last 11 games. Likewise, books have been setting totals a tad too low for the Aggies with the Over cashing in four of their last five.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Texas vs Texas A&M odds
Texas vs Texas A&M live odds
Texas vs Texas A&M opening odds
- Spread: Texas +6.5 | Texas A&M -6.5
- Moneyline: Texas +235 | Texas A&M -290
- Over/Under: Over 138.5 | Under Over 138.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Texas vs Texas A&M betting trend to know
The Aggies are 22-7 ATS since the start of March over the last three years. Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas vs. Texas A&M.
How to watch Texas vs Texas A&M
| Location | Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN |
| Date | Thursday, 3-13-2025 |
| Tip-off | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | SEC Network |
Texas vs Texas A&M key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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