The Texas Longhorns face off against the Vanderbilt Commodores in the first round of the SEC Tournament on Wednesday afternoon.
The Longhorns have been highly profitable for Over bettors since the start of February, and my Texas vs. Vanderbilt predictions are betting on that to continue.
Here are my free college basketball picks for this conference tournament clash on March 12.
Texas vs Vanderbilt prediction
Who will win Texas vs Vanderbilt?
The Vanderbilt Commodores beat the Texas Longhorns 86-78 when these teams clashed on February 8 at Memorial Gym. The Commodores will also enjoy a bit of a home-court edge in this tourney because it will take place down the road from their campus in Nashville.
That said, the first meeting between these teams was a back-and-forth battle. Texas had a 10-point lead in the second half before Vanderbilt clawed back and took the lead in the final six minutes.
A big reason Vandy was able to mount a comeback was second-chance buckets fueled by 17 offensive boards. Given that the Commodores average 9.9 offensive rebounds per game and the Longhorns allow 8.6, that's a big outlier that won't be repeated.
While both teams are bad on defense, Texas is better. The Commodores were last in the SEC in opponent effective field goal percentage (57.3%) during conference play while the Longhorns were eighth out of 16 teams with an opponent eFG% of 51.3%.
Texas will also have the best player on the floor in guard Tre Johnson (20.2 ppg) who looks like a lottery pick in the upcoming NBA draft. That's enough for me to lean towards the Longhorns as short dogs.
My best bet: Over 148.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Surprisingly, the total opened at 148.5 with KenPom projecting 155 points in this clash and Bart Torvik projecting 156. Vanderbilt beat Texas 86-78 last month with the Commodores shooting 42.3% from the field and the Longhorns shooting just 41.7%.
The fact both teams combined for 164 points despite shooting poorly, bodes well for their chance of cashing the Over again — especially with how poorly these schools defend.
The Longhorns were 14th in the SEC in adjusted defensive efficiency during conference play and have allowed 82+ points in six of their last eight games. Vanderbilt has been even worse, ranking dead-last in adjusted defense and surrendering 80.8 points per game to SEC foes.
The Commodores are also last in the conference in 3-point defense (39.5%) while ranking second-last in 2-point defense (56%). That's bad news against a Texas squad averaging 77.5 ppg over its last 10 games.
Texas vs Vanderbilt same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 148.5
Tre Johnson Over 20.5 points
Texas +2.5
Tre Johnson is coming off his worst performance of the season, going 0-14 from the floor against Oklahoma. That said, he had dropped more than 20 points in eight of his previous 11 games and I expect him to bounce back here.
The five-star freshman is knocking down 2.7 threes per game at a 39.5% clip and should be able to take advantage of a Vanderbilt side that defends poorly on the perimeter.
As outlined above, I like the Longhorns to eke out a win in a revenge spot here. That has me taking them as short dogs on the spread in this SGP play.
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Texas vs Vanderbilt odds
Texas vs Vanderbilt live odds
Texas vs Vanderbilt opening odds
- Spread: Texas +2 | Vanderbilt -2
- Moneyline: Texas +110 | Vanderbilt -130
- Over/Under: Over 148.5 | Under 148.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Texas vs Vanderbilt betting trend to know
The Over in 9-1 in the Longhorns' last 10 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas vs. Vanderbilt.
How to watch Texas vs Vanderbilt
| Location | Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-12-2025 |
| Tip-off | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | SEC Network |
Texas vs Vanderbilt key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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