The UCF Knights face off against the Cincinnati Bearcats in the quarterfinals of the College Basketball Crown on Thursday night.
The Bearcats are one of the few teams fully intact for this end of year tournament and my UCF vs. Cincinnati predictions expect that continuity to make the difference. Here are my college basketball picks for the April 3 showdown.
Who will win UCF vs Cincinnati?
The UCF Knights held on for a 76-75 win against Oregon State in the first round on Tuesday. The Beavers had multiple chances to win the game in the final minute but couldn't hit a shot. On the other hand, the Cincinnati Bearcats hammered DePaul 83-61 in the first round, easily covering as 10-point faves.
The Bearcats have more momentum, are far better on defense, and won comfortably on the road when these teams previously clashed this season. When you also consider that Big 12 leading scorer Keyshawn Hall (18.8 points and 7.1 rebounds per game) has already transferred out of the UCF program, the Bearcats should win.
UCF vs Cincinnati prediction
My best bet: Double Result Cincinnati - Cincinnati (-135 at bet365)
The Knights picked up a close win in the opening round but are still just 5-10 straight-up and 6-9 against the spread in their last 15 games. Meanwhile, the Bearcats are 7-6 SU and 8-3-2 ATS in their previous 13 contests.
That stretch includes the only meeting between these Big 12 foes this season. The Bearcats won 93-83 on the road despite Keyshawn Hall scoring 23 points for UCF. With the Knights now playing on a neutral site without Hall, I don't see them doing any better.
The loss of Hall is significant and while the Knights still have key players like Darius Johnson, Jordan Ivy-Curry, and Moustapha Thiam, they're undermanned compared to Cincinnati. The Bearcats have their entire rotation intact and have been bringing Simas Lukosius and Dan Skillings off the bench, making for virtually no drop-off to the second unit.
Cincinnati is 20th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and limits foes to 48.1% shooting inside the arc. That stingy defense will contain a UCF attack that is just 280th in 2-point percentage (48.5%).
On the other side of the floor, the Knights are also 243rd in opponent 2-point percentage (52.4%) and just 339th in defensive rebounding rate. They'll leak points inside against a Bearcats offense that does it's best work on the interior.
This line opened with Cincinnati at -4.5 and has grown to -6.5, but with the Bearcats boasting superior depth and an elite defense, they are still the right side. I'll back them to lead at half and win the game at -135.
UCF vs Cincinnati same-game parlay (SGP)
Double Result Cincinnati - Cincinnati
First to 20 points 1H - Cincinnati
Under 154.5
The previous meeting between these teams saw a whopping 176 points scored, and games in this tourney have seen lax defense. That said, I think books have adjusted totals a tad too much from the opening round.
The Bearcats prefer a slow tempo and are in the Top 5 at defending the rim, defending in transition, and defending the pick-and-roll. The Knights are also 227th in turnover rate since the start of February while the Bearcats are 22nd in opponent TO rate over that span.
The O/U of 154 is seven points higher than the previous meeting despite UCF missing its top scorer. With the Under 23-10 in Cincinnati's last 33 games, I'm leaning towards that here.
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UCF vs Cincinnati odds
UCF vs Cincinnati opening odds
- Spread: UCF +6.5 | Cincinnati -6.5
- Moneyline: UCF +225 | Cincinnati -275
- Over/Under: Over 154 | Under 154
Odds courtesy of bet365
UCF vs Cincinnati betting trend to know
These conference foes have met five times since 2023 with the Bearcats going 5-0 SU and ATS. Find more college basketball betting trends for UCF vs. Cincinnati.
How to watch UCF vs Cincinnati
| Location | MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date | Thursday, 4-3-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
UCF vs Cincinnati key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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