UCLA vs Arizona State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bruins Cool off Sun Devils

You’d be remiss for not noticing what Bobby Hurley and Arizona State (15-3) have been up to lately.

After reeling off four straight wins, the Sun Devils sit alone in second place in the Pac-12 standings with a 6-1 conference record. Their run of success sets the stage for a huge showdown on Thursday night between the top two teams in the conference standings, as Mick Cronin's No. 5 UCLA (16-2) come to Tempe.

Will the Sun Devils stay hot, or will the Bruins keep their perfect conference record alive? Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for UCLA Bruins vs Arizona State Sun Devils on Thursday, January 19. 

UCLA vs Arizona State best odds

UCLA vs Arizona State picks and predictions

The Sun Devils received 79 votes in the latest AP Poll, the 28th-most in the country. That leaves Hurley’s squad just on the outside of the Top 25, although a big week awaits with two chances to advance in both the standings and the polls. Arizona State faces the top dog in the Pac-12 – UCLA – Thursday night, before hosting third-place USC on Saturday. 

ASU is a profitable 10-7-1 ATS on the year. After going 4-0 against Washington, Washington State, Oregon, and Oregon State, the Sun Devils moved up to 51st overall in KenPom while ranking 86th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 31st in adjusted defensive efficiency. Clearly, the advanced numbers are not supporting them as a legitimate contender just yet.

How have Hurley & Co. gotten things done? This is a talented roster with a number of impact contributors. 

Desmond Cambridge Jr. won his second Pac-12 Player of the Week award after posting 42 points in ASU’s two-game sweep of the Oregon schools. He’s tied for the team lead in scoring with guard DJ Horne at 12.1 PPG, while brother Devan Cambridge chips in 10.9 PPG. Guard Frankie Collins is the fourth Sun Devil in double figures at 10.9 PPG, while leading the team with 5.1 assists a night.

The Sun Devils play shutdown defense, ranking eighth nationally in field goal defense (37.7%) while allowing just 65.6 PPG. 

However, the Bruins are one of the best teams in the country, and should be on a shortlist of title contenders. Cronin’s squad ranks third overall in KenPom, and is fifth in the AP Poll. Winners of 13 straight, the Bruins’ confidence is at an all-time high heading into Thursday night’s marquee matchup. 

I’m targeting the Under as my best bet for this game featuring two phenomenal defenses. Arizona State’s defensive prowess has already been covered, but UCLA has one of the best units in the country, and checks in fourth in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. The Sun Devils struggle mightily shooting the ball, ranking 243rd in field-goal percentage (43.4%), 276th in three-point percentage (32.2%), and 274th in free throw percentage (68%).

Neither team plays with a particular sense of urgency. UCLA is methodical offensively, ranking 237th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric, while Arizona State isn’t much higher at 172nd. All signs point toward the Under in a low-scoring, grueling matchup between two tough defenses. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see either team come out a little tight offensively considering the significance of this game in the conference race.

My best bet: Under 135.5 (-105 at BetMGM)

UCLA vs Arizona State spread analysis

Currently, the spread is listed between -4.5 and -5 in favor of the Bruins.

UCLA has not only been wildly successful on the court this season, but it has also made faithful bettors plenty of profit. The Bruins are 11-7 ATS this season and are on a hot streak, covering six of their last eight games overall. This is a veteran squad led by familiar faces such as Jaimie Jaquez (16.7 PPG), Tyger Campbell (13.3 PPG), and Jaylen Clark (14.2 PPG), so it should come as no surprise that they’ve been road warriors. The Bruins are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. 

Those unable or unwilling to stay up late to watch West Coast hoops may have missed the emergence of UCLA freshman center Adem Bona. The 6-foot-10 Nigerian has been a force down low for a team relatively lacking in size and depth in the post. Cronin has relied almost exclusively on Bona to be the enforcer, as no other Bruin standing above 6-foot-6 averages at least 13 minutes per game.

Bona’s stats (8.5 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.5 blocks) don’t quite tell the story of how important he’s been to UCLA’s sustained success. There are a host of veteran ball handlers to lead the team, while Bona has given the Bruins a fresh spark of life and an influx of talent where his team needed it most. 

The Bruins are the superior side and likely win this matchup more often than not, so I lean toward taking the -4.5.

UCLA vs Arizona State Over/Under analysis

Backing UCLA to the Under has been a profitable venture lately. The Bruins are 7-0 to the Under in their last seven games, and a few of those have been against better offenses than ASU. 

The Bruins are solid everywhere defensively, and allow just 59.8 PPG while preferring the play at a slow pace. They rank 65th in field-goal defense (40.9%), and thrive off shutting down looks from behind the arc, ranking 21st in three-point defense (29%). Given the Sun Devils’ shooting woes, it would be a surprise for ASU to scorch the nets on Thursday night. 

The Sun Devils have been on a little run to the Over, notching a 4-0 mark in their last four games. I believe that’s caused this line to be a tad inflated heading into a matchup with one of the best defenses in the country. ASU is a flat-out poor shooting team both inside the arc (194th in two-point shooting at 50.6%) and outside of it (276th in three-point shooting at 32.2%). 

Both teams take care of the ball, so I don’t see costly mistakes leading to a lot of fastbreak points. ASU ranks 270th in turnovers per game (11.9) while UCLA is elite, ranking 359th in turnovers per game (9.8).

UCLA vs Arizona State betting trend to know

UCLA is 7-0 to the Under in its last seven games. Find more college basketball betting trends for UCLA vs. Arizona State.

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