UCLA vs USC Picks and Predictions: Bruins Earn Long Overdue Rivalry W

Crosstown rivals UCLA and USC face off for the first time this season, as the No. 12 Bruins head to the Galen Center to take on the No. 21 Trojans.

A big game for obvious reasons (ahem, rivalry), this matchup is also critical in the Pac-12 conference race. UCLA is tied for second in the Pac-12 with a 9-3 conference record, while USC is right behind at 9-4. 

The Trojans have won four straight against the Bruins. Will they be able to make it five in a row over their rivals?

Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for the UCLA Bruins and USC Trojans tonight, February 12, to find out.

UCLA vs USC odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

UCLA is the slight favorite. The Bruins opened -2.5 and sit as -2 favorites as of the time of this writing. The total took some immediate money to the Over, jumping from 135.5 at open to 137.5 at current.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

UCLA vs USC predictions

• Prediction: UCLA -2 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 137.5 (-110)
• Best bet: UCLA -2 (-110)

Predictions made on 2/12/2022 at 2:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

UCLA vs USC game info

• Location: Galen Center, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Saturday, February 12, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

UCLA at USC betting preview

Injuries

UCLA: Jaylen Clark G (Probable), Mac Etienne F (Out).
USC: Isaiah Mobley F (Probable).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Trojans are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games. Find more NCAA betting trends for UCLA vs. USC.

UCLA vs USC picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

First things first, both teams are expected to be at full strength for this pivotal Pac-12 showdown between two teams vying for position near the top of the standings. USC star Isaiah Mobley is expected to play despite dealing with a broken nose. Mobley has evolved into one of the better frontcourt players in the nation, averaging 14.7 points on 45.7% shooting while adding 1.6 3-pointers per game. He also chips in 8.5 boards, 3.2 assists, and a steal and a block per game. His status is a key factor to monitor, but all reports indicate that he’ll be ready to go.

Arizona has taken a clear lead in the Pac-12, but the waters are murky in the second through fourth range in the standings. This rivalry game will help determine where some of the dominoes fall.

After an inexplicable triple-overtime loss to Arizona State, the Bruins rebounded with a 79-70 win over Stanford despite the Cardinal shooting well above their season-long percentages. The Bruins were dealing with health and availability concerns to a few important players but are back to 100% and should close out the regular season on a high note as they prepare for another NCAA tournament run. 

The Bruins return most of the key pieces to a Final Four team from a season ago. They’re a well-coached and balanced team under Mick Cronin. The Bruins rank 12th in KenPom while checking in at 17th in both offensive and defensive efficiency, a testament to the balance of this squad. 

USC checks in at 33rd in KenPom, ranking 44th in offensive efficiency and 46th in defensive efficiency. UCLA is clearly the superior team from an analytical standpoint, and we see little reason to favor the Trojans. 

For UCLA, Johnny Juzang is one of the best scorers in college basketball and leads the way with 18.1 points per game. Jaime Jaquez is a jack-of-all-trades, averaging 13.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 2.3 points. Tyger Cambell is the straw that stirs the drink, chipping in 11.2 points and 4.7 assists. 

We expect the Bruins to be hungry in this contest considering that the Trojans have surprisingly won four straight in this matchup. It’s a close matchup, but the Bruins are the better team and should be motivated to grab an overdue win over their crosstown rivals.

Prediction: UCLA -2 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The Under is 7-2 in UCLA’s last nine road games. The Bruins play sound defense, limiting opponents to just 65.9 points per game on 41.7% shooting.

USC is one of the tallest teams in the nation. The Trojans often throw opponents off and alter shots with their length. USC surrenders only 63.6 points per game while holding opponents to 38.1% from the field, the 11th best mark nationally. 

We have two good defenses in this matchup, and the pace of play should be slightly below average. UCLA plays at just the 236th-fasted tempo (per KenPom), while USC is only slightly ahead at 224th. 

Anytime you give me two good defenses playing at a below-average pace, I’ll side with the Under. The Over actually took some steam at open, so there’s a chance we grab a better price before tipoff.

Prediction: Under 137.5 (-110)

Best bet

These teams appear closely matched considering their proximity in the Pac-12 standings. A closer look points us in the direction of the Bruins, however, given that they’re a full 21 spots higher in KenPom and yet are laying only two points. 

The home-court advantage is hardly a boon to the Trojans, considering that they're 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games. The Bruins are a short drive away and won’t face any adverse traveling conditions. We like UCLA to cover this short spread as they seek to avenge the four straight Trojan wins in this matchup.

Pick: UCLA -2 (-110)

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