The UCLA Bruins and USC Trojans meet for the first time as Big Ten members on Monday night at the Galen Center.
Both teams are playing good ball as UCLA has won three straight to break out of a lull, and USC has won three out of four, including a statement victory over Illinois.
Read our UCLA vs. USC predictions and college basketball picks below for a breakdown of this rivalry game.
UCLA vs USC prediction
My best bet
Under 140.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
An interesting trend to follow with the UCLA Bruins is that they began the year as a team dead set on the Under, going 3-11 O/U in their first 14 games. That changed a bit lately with a stretch of five straight Overs snapped this Friday at Washington, but this team’s identity resides on the defensive end regardless.
The Bruins check in at 16th in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing 64.5 ppg. They don’t allow opponents to get looks inside the arc frequently, allowing 28.2 2-point attempts per game (fifth-lowest nationally).
One storyline to follow with UCLA is the emergence of 7-foot-3 Spaniard Aday Mara. The behemoth is coming off his two best games in a Bruins uniform, collecting 22 points without missing a shot against Wisconsin and then playing a career-high 30 minutes against Washington and notching 12 points, seven rebounds, and five blocks.
Depending on which advanced metrics you look at, he’s either UCLA’s best defensive player or close to it. Mick Cronin’s team already walls off the rim (fourth in near-proximity attempt rate, per Haslametrics) and should pull off that game plan even more so with Mara playing heavier minutes.
This puts the USC Trojans in a tricky spot offensively. They loate shooting a high volume from behind the arc, ranking 332nd in 3-point attempt rate (Haslametrics), and therefore will attempt too many midrange jumpers if the Bruins do wall off the paint.
UCLA’s defensive slip-ups before this weekend had some to do with forward Eric Dailey either absent or limited due to injury. He’s back at seemingly full health and forms a formidable defensive frontcourt with Mara if the Spaniard continues his emergence.
Stretch forward Tyler Bilodeau is questionable with an ankle injury and played just three minutes on Friday. The Bruins want to play slow (272nd in adjusted tempo), and more Mara minutes will allow Cronin to truly grind games down to a halt.
These teams have gone 2-8 O/U across the last 10 meetings, and I’m betting on another low-scoring game in this series.
UCLA vs USC same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 140.5
UCLA moneyline
A UCLA victory is strongly correlated with the Under as the Trojans tend to win if their offense performs well but lose if it doesn’t. That’s true of most teams, but especially so with them — Eric Musselmen’s squad is a perfect 12-0 when they score 75+ points but 0-7 when they don’t.
The Bruins have gotten the better of this rivalry lately, winning three straight in the series. They’re rated 34 spots higher on KenPom, and their defense gives them the best unit in this game, according to the statistics.
Cronin’s teams have been hot and cold over the last year and a half. He seems to have found the right recipe with three straight wins, so I’m buying the dip after his team played well but failed to cover the last two games.
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UCLA vs USC odds
UCLA vs USC live odds
UCLA vs USC opening odds
- Spread: UCLA -1 | USC +1
- Moneyline: UCLA -110 | USC -110
- Over/Under: Over 140.5 | Under 140.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
UCLA vs USC betting trend to know
These schools have combined to go 2-8 O/U across the last 10 meetings. Find more college basketball betting trends for UCLA vs. USC.
How to watch UCLA vs USC
| Location | Galen Center, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Monday, 1-27-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
UCLA vs USC key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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