UConn vs Providence Odds, Picks and Predictions: Huskies Serve Up a Big East Warning

The Connecticut Huskies are riding a five-game winning streak as they head into the Big East Tournament to play against the Providence Friars on Thursday.

No. 11 UConn has won eight of its last nine games after suffering through some midseason struggles. Providence has lost two straight, but finished with the same conference record (13-7) as the Huskies.

UConn seem to be peaking at the right time, while the Friars are limping into the postseason. We’ll break down how this will impact Thursday’s game in our college basketball picks and predictions for Providence vs. Connecticut on March 9.

UConn vs Providence best odds

UConn vs Providence picks and predictions

Connecticut began the year as one of the hottest teams in the country. The Huskies started out 14-0, nearly making it to 2023 without losing a game. At their peak, the Huskies were ranked No. 2 in the country.

That streak came to a crashing halt when UConn lost to Xavier on New Year’s Eve. It would go on to lose five out of six, nearly falling out of the AP rankings. It was a stunning midseason swoon for a team that seemed nearly unbeatable for the first half of the season.

But the Huskies have bounced back strong since then. Connecticut has won eight of its last nine, with its only loss in that span being a three-point loss at the Creighton Bluejays. That stretch includes a blowout 87-69 win over Providence on February 22. 

That big win wasn’t just a mark of how well the Huskies have been playing. While not as dramatic, Providence has also been going through its own rise and fall story this season. The Friars were once 6-0 in Big East play but closed out the season by losing three of their last four, including an embarrassing 82-58 home defeat to Seton Hall on Saturday.

In the end, these seasons have left both of these teams in the same place, with a 13-7 record in the Big East, and a 4 vs. 5 showdown in the conference tournament. A closer look reveals just how much better the Huskies have been this year.

UConn is one of the rare teams that excel on both offense and defense. The Huskies are scoring 79 points per game, but also hold their opponents to 64.8 on average. That puts them third in the country in scoring margin, beating opponents by a massive average of 14.1 points. 

Connecticut has done this while playing a fairly strong schedule, both in the Big East and in its non-conference slate. UConn has a 15-point win over Alabama on a neutral site, one of the best wins any team can boast this season.

Providence can score points too, averaging 78.5 points per game, but also allows opponents to average over 71 points in response. In the most recent meeting between these two teams, the Friars couldn’t stop the Huskies in the second half, giving up 50 points after the break. 

All the metrics suggest that UConn is the better team here. The Huskies are also the hotter team, and many of their numbers are tamped down a bit by a slump that is now far behind them. I’m taking Connecticut and laying a few points in this game.

My best bet: UConn -7 (-110 at DraftKings)

UConn vs Providence spread analysis

Today’s line opened at seven points, and that number has remained pretty steady throughout the day. While you can find lines with added juice one way or another at 6.5 or 7.5, Connecticut -7 is still the consensus spread.

UConn has been incredible against the spread this year, posting a 20-10-1 ATS record. Providence has been nearly as good for bettors, going 18-13 ATS on the season.

However, it has been the Huskies who have come through for the public in recent weeks. Connecticut has covered in six of its last seven games, while Providence is just 1-3 ATS in its last four. 

The Huskies are universally beloved by advanced ratings systems. Sagarin puts them at No. 5, while KenPom.com has them at No. 4. What’s really happening here is that computers aren’t fooled or bothered by a midseason slump, instead seeing that UConn is back to the dominant form that it displayed throughout most of the season.

Connecticut is one of the best teams in the country and showed it was a class above Providence in their last meeting. Even though we’re laying a significant number of points, I’m still taking the Huskies tonight.

UConn vs Providence Over/Under analysis

The total for this contest opened at 145 points. There’s been more movement on this market than on the spread, with the Over/Under dipping down 143.5 at almost all sites as of late morning on Thursday.

That may be surprising if you follow Providence at all. The Friars have hit the Over in six straight games, five of which came in above today’s total. In many cases, they’ve been blasting way past the total, with the Over covering by double digits in five of their last nine.

Connecticut also typically scores plenty of points, though it has hit the Under in four of its last six. Even still, the Huskies have played to totals above 145 in six of their last 10, so this isn’t a case of a team that has fundamentally changed its identity. 

We’ve already seen two games between these teams, with very different results. When Providence won the opener, it did so in a fairly low-scoring game that ended with a total of 134. In the rematch, UConn won in a blowout, shooting the total up to 156. 

I likely would have stayed off this market entirely if the total was still at 145 points. With the reduction to 143.5, however, I’m inclined to lean towards the Over. It’s not a strong pick, but the Friars' recent struggles in stopping opponents from lighting up the scoreboard make me think that this will likely be a high-scoring affair, especially on UConn’s side.

UConn vs Providence betting trend to know

Connecticut is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for UConn vs. Providence.

UConn vs Providence game info

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