UConn vs Villanova Odds, Picks and Predictions: Expect Plenty of Fireworks

The Connecticut Huskies and the Villanova Wildcats will wrap up their respective regular seasons with a showdown at Wells Fargo Center on Saturday night.

The motivation to win this one is most likely stronger for Villanova, which is 16-14 and headed for an NIT berth if it can’t make a huge end-of-year run. However, with four straight wins under its belt, it’s hard to say No. 14 UConn is just looking ahead to the Big East Tournament or the NCAA Tournament right now. 

How will this one shake out? Find out in our free college basketball picks and predictions for UConn vs Villanova on Saturday, March 4.

UConn vs Villanova best odds

UConn vs Villanova picks and predictions

When these teams met for the first time this season on Dec. 28, UConn walked away with a 74-66 victory at home — though Villanova managed to cover as massive 12.5-point underdogs. Over bettors scored against a total of 136. 

It’s a much closer point spread this time around, with the Huskies favored by about 2.5 points at most books as of Saturday morning. A good deal of that has to do with the change in locale, but the addition of Justin Moore — who didn’t make his season debut until Jan. 29 — to the Wildcats’ lineup should not be understated. 

While I think picking a side against the spread in this one is a tough call, I’m fairly certain the Over will prevail in this spot. It’s only listed 2.5 points higher than the first meeting, which seems like a relative bargain.

Moore is averaging 17.6 ppg over his last five contests, and he might have had a higher figure if he didn’t get into foul trouble in two of those tilts. Speaking of foul shooting, Moore has made 22 of his last 24 shots (91.6%) at the charity stripe.

Moore has been highly efficient from the floor in his last three games in particular, making 19 of 29 attempted field goals (65.5%), including a 7-for-14 mark from downtown. 

The senior guard represents everything that Villanova tries to do as a team — take and make threes, and sink their foul shots. 

The Wildcats are a modest 164th in the country in 3-point percentage vs. the average team (34.9%, per Haslametrics), but attempt the 11th-most threes in the nation vs. the average team. Their make rate jumps from 33.6% overall to 35.7% at home.

Villanova is the most lethal team in the country when it comes to free throw shooting, as it converts 82.9% of its attempts. UConn is 290th in free throw attempts allowed per 100 trips upcourt to the average opponent, so the Wildcats can earn plenty of easy points that way.

We haven’t even mentioned UConn’s fifth-ranked offense adjusted for efficiency (118.9, per Haslametrics) yet. The Huskies are third in the nation in second chance conversion percentage vs. the average opponent (9%), so they don’t waste trips upcourt very often. 

My best bet: Over 138.5 (-110 at bet365)

UConn vs Villanova spread analysis

If UConn’s shooters are looking ahead to March Madness, they’re not showing it on the floor. The team has been as efficient as ever, averaging an incredible 90 points over its last three tilts. Junior forward Adama Sanogo has averaged an even 20 ppg in that span.

However, the Huskies have let up on defense somewhat in this stretch, allowing 71.3 ppg. Their season average is 65 ppg. Adjusted for efficiency, their defense ranks 21st in the country. 

This one won’t be a walkover for UConn. Haslametrics has the Huskies winning by just under four points  — hardly a decisive edge relative to the point spread. 

Villanova has won six of its last seven games, with its only loss coming on the road to No. 24 Providence on Feb. 18. Ranked 22nd in momentum, the Wildcats are that fabled “team that no one wants to face” right now.

In addition to Moore, UConn will have to watch out for Eric Dixon — who has 18 or more points in five of his last eight games — and Cam Whitmore, who’s averaging 18 points over his last two efforts. 

The trends paint a complicated picture too. The Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last six overall, and 4-1 ATS in their last five against teams with winning records. But the Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five overall, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games vs. teams with winning road records.

UConn vs Villanova Over/Under analysis

As I stated in my best bet analysis, I think oddsmakers have not adjusted the total enough relative to the prior meeting, the change in location, and the addition of Moore.

I believe the shooting performances will exceed the low combined make rate of 41.3% from the earlier head-to-head matchup this season, and send this tilt soaring above the total. Both clubs are making 46% of their shots from the floor vs. the average opponent this year.

Bettors should also consider the recent Over trends for both teams in this Big East battle. 

The Over is 6-1 in the Huskies’ last seven games following a SU win of more than 20 points, and 8-3 in their last 11 games following a SU win of any kind. The Over is 4-1 in the Wildcats’ last five games following an ATS win. Villanova exceeded the total by double digits in three of its last four overall.

UConn vs Villanova betting trend to know

The Huskies have won each of their last five games following a SU win. Find more college basketball betting trends for UConn vs. Villanova.

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