UNC Wilmington vs North Carolina Odds, Picks and Predictions: No. 1-Ranked Tar Heels Are Overvalued

The No. 1-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels will begin their quest to improve on last year’s run to the National Championship game when they host the UNC Wilmington Seahawks at the Smith Center on Monday night.

The Tar Heels finished last season with a 29-10 record after losing to the Kansas Jayhawks by three points in the final of the NCAA Tournament. UNC Wilmington had a strong season itself, going 27-9 and winning the postseason College Basketball Invitational.

North Carolina comes in as a substantial favorite on Monday and should win its opener. The question is just how dominant the Tar Heels will look against the Seahawks.

We’ll take a look at how this matchup will play out in our college basketball picks and predictions for UNC Wilmington vs. North Carolina.

UNC Wilmington vs North Carolina best odds

UNC Wilmington vs North Carolina picks and predictions

North Carolina snuck up on the field during last year’s NCAA Tournament. The Tar Heels spent most of the season as an unranked team and earned only a No. 8 seed heading into March Madness. It was only a magical run all the way to the final that put North Carolina in the position to start this season as one of the leading national title contenders. 

The Tar Heels are bringing back four starters from last year’s team. Those include junior Caleb Love, who averaged 15.9 ppg last season, and senior big man Armando Bacot, who put up 16.3 points and 13.1 rebounds per game last year. North Carolina also brought in more interior help in the form of graduate transfer Pete Nance, who averaged 14.6 ppg with the Northwestern Wildcats last year.

The Tar Heels aren’t facing a cupcake in their first game, however. While UNC Wilmington is a large underdog on Monday, it is coming off a strong season of its own that ended with a postseason championship — albeit a low-prestige one in the form of the CBI title. The Seahawks nearly made the NCAA Tournament themselves but lost to the Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens in the CAA Tournament final to lose out on the conference’s automatic bid.

Wilmington brings back two starters, including senior guard Shykeim Phillips. While Phillips scored 11.3 ppg, his real contribution came on the defensive end, where he served as the backbone of a unit that allowed only 69 points per game to opponents.

Of course, the Tar Heels should get above that number on Monday. The Seahawks rarely play teams of North Carolina’s caliber and that will be a shock to the system of coach Takayo Siddle’s team. Still, the team has an identity that’s hard to ignore: while they may not be prolific scorers, they are more than capable of staying in games night after night.

That’s likely to play out again on Monday. Yes, the Tar Heels will win, and they should do so fairly comfortably, but this isn’t a situation in which North Carolina can simply name its score and quickly empty the bench while still blowing out its overmatched opponents. The Seahawks proved they can play last year and will want to carry that identity into the 2022-23 season.

Look for North Carolina to open a lead and gradually extend it throughout the night, particularly in the second half. In the end, however, the Tar Heels will come up short of the 23.5-point spread.

I’m backing the Seahawks and taking the points, as I expect UNC Wilmington to keep things within striking distance for longer than the heavy spread suggests.

My best bet: UNC Wilmington +23.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

UNC Wilmington vs North Carolina spread analysis

Because of some lingering injuries to the Tar Heels, many books were hesitant to post a line on Monday’s game. Despite that, however, lines have remained pretty steady. Whether sites posted college basketball odds on Friday or waited until Monday morning, everyone has settled around UNC -23.5.

Those injuries don’t look to be a major factor heading into tonight’s game. However, it is worth noting that starting guard RJ Davis is probable with a hand injury, while reserve forward Jalen Washington is unlikely to play.

While the Tar Heels beat up on its early season opponents last year, none of those games were the kinds of blowouts that would justify a spread as large as the one we’re seeing tonight. In fact, North Carolina only had one win of more than 23 points in the regular season last year, a 91-65 blowout of the Boston College Eagles in January. 

With the Tar Heels bringing back a very similar team from last year, there’s no reason to think they’ll start blowing teams out on a regular basis this season. Throw in the fact that the Seahawks covered the spread in eight of their last nine games to finish last season and I think UNC Wilmington +23.5 is the clear play Monday night.

UNC Wilmington vs North Carolina Over/Under analysis

The total on Monday’s game opened at an already fairly high 146 points and has only risen since. At the moment, the consensus Over/Under exists at 150.5, one of the higher totals on the opening-night slate.

North Carolina is driving most of that number. The Tar Heels averaged 77.9 ppg last year and didn’t exactly shut down the opposition in response, with opponents putting up 71.3 points a night. However, the Seahawks were a bit more defensive-minded, scoring just over 72 ppg while holding opponents to an average of 69.

Those numbers don’t add up to a game that will be played to a total of over 150. Bettors may be looking at some of North Carolina’s early-season wins last year for a reason to bet the number up, however. The Tar Heels totaled 181 in a 94-87 win over the Brown Bears, 177 in a 94-83 victory over the College of Charleston Cougars, and 150 in an 83-67 triumph against the Loyola Greyhounds in their first three games of the 2021-22 season.

Those three games shouldn’t be enough to convince us that this game will be a shootout, given how these teams played over the course of the entire season last year.

Still, the fact that the Tar Heels have often played to big numbers against weaker opponents is enough to keep me away from betting this game, even if my first instinct is to take the Under.

UNC Wilmington vs North Carolina betting trend to know

UNC Wilmington is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 road games. Find more College basketball betting trends for UNC Wilmington vs. North Carolina.

UNC Wilmington vs North Carolina game info

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