UNLV vs Boise State Picks and Predictions: Rebels Can't Run With Broncos

On Friday, the Boise State Broncos look to move to 10-1 in conference play when they host the UNLV Rebels. Boise State has been extremely tough to beat at home this season, while UNLV is just 2-7 on the road. 

Will the Rebels find a way to pull it together away from home? Check out our UNLV vs. Boise State college basketball picks and predictions for February 11. 

UNLV vs Boise State odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Boise State was favored by 8.5 when this game first hit markets, but it’s starting to shift to 9 in some places — which could have something to do with the playing status of Emmanuel Akot. Meanwhile, the total opened at 130.5 in this game and is now down to 130 on some books. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

UNLV vs Boise State predictions

• Prediction: Boise State -8.5 (-108)
• Prediction: Under 130.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Boise State -8.5 (-108)

Predictions made on 2/11/2022 at 12:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

UNLV vs Boise State game info

• Location: ExtraMile Arena, Boise, ID
• Date: Friday, February 11, 2022
• Tip-off: 11:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Fox Sports 1

UNLV at Boise State betting preview

Injuries

UNLV: Marvin Coleman G (Questionable), Donovan Williams F (Questionable), Victor Iwuakor F (Questionable), James Hampshire C (Out).
Boise State: Emmanuel Akot G (Questionable), RJ Keene G (Out), Kobe Young G (Out).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Boise State is 7-3 against the spread in its last 10 games against teams with winning records. Find more NCAA betting trends for UNLV vs. Boise State.

UNLV vs Boise State picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Assuming Akot is able to play in this game — which isn’t exactly a safe assumption — there’s not a whole lot preventing the Broncos from earning a blowout victory at home. Boise State is seventh in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency (all efficiency stats from KenPom.com) this year, and this Broncos group is truly just a nightmare to play offense against. Boise State is capable of defending around the rim, while also smothering three-point shooters. And the Broncos should be able to stifle the Rebels in this game, much like they did when they held UNLV to an average of 62.5 points per game in two meetings last year. 

It is, however, somewhat important that Akot is out there for the offense, as the guard is averaging 11.0 points and 3.0 assists per game on the season. He’s also shooting 40.7% from deep on the year, so he’s imperative for floor spacing. But if he’s out, Boise State does have other guys to turn to, and the team also has the option of relying even more on senior forward Abu Kigab. Kigab is averaging 22.0 points and 8.0 rebounds per game over the last two contests, and he’s really in a groove for the Broncos. Kigob isn’t much of an outside threat for Boise State, but he’ll apply constant rim pressure on UNLV here. Marcus Shaver Jr. is also capable of handling a bigger workload on the ball, if needed. 

All in all, the Broncos have the pieces they need to score on a mediocre Rebels defense in this game, but UNLV doesn’t quite have the firepower to hang around with the way Boise State plays defense. The Broncos will have a plan for Bryce Hamilton, who is averaging 21.4 points per game this year. Hamilton was just 16 for 39 from the floor in two meetings with Boise State last season, and this Broncos defense is better than last year’s by a significant margin. 

Prediction: Boise State -8.5 (-108)

Over/Under analysis

The Under is 3-1 in the last four meetings between these two teams, and they combined to score only 120 points when they last met on February 13. With the way Boise State plays defense, it’s just unrealistic to expect UNLV to do much to help this game go Over the total. And Boise State isn’t exactly the type to run up a score enough for an Under not to cash. The Broncos are just 128th in the nation in adjusted tempo this season. 

The Under is 6-0 when UNLV is coming off a game in which the team gave up 55 or fewer points since the start of last season, and the average total points scored in those contests was 123.7 points per game. The Under is also 8-2 in the last 10 games in which UNLV is coming off a win by 20 or more points. 

Prediction: Under 130.5 (-110) 

Best bet

Not only is Boise State one of the most underrated teams in the nation this season, but UNLV is 9-18 against the spread when playing against teams with winning records since the start of last year. Meanwhile, the Broncos are 18-8 against the spread in that same span when facing teams that outscore their opponents by at least 4.0 points per game. Boise State gets up for games against solid competition, and you just can’t say the same for UNLV. 

Ultimately, the Broncos defense should be too much for the Rebels to overcome here. This is a Top-10 defensive team in the country, and these Broncos will be flying around with more purpose than usual in a conference game at home. 

Pick: Boise State -8.5 (-108)

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