A momentous Pac-12 showdown goes down Saturday afternoon between the No. 19 USC Trojans and the No. 7 Arizona Wildcats.
These two teams have yet to play this season after the original meeting on Jan. 2 was rescheduled. Arizona enters on less than 48 hours’ rest after a huge win over UCLA at home and looks to be the class of the conference. USC made the Elite Eight a year ago and has remained a tough out despite some significant departures from a year ago.
Will Arizona win comfortably at home, or will USC keep things close?
Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for the USC vs. Arizona on Saturday, February 5 to find out.
USC vs Arizona odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The line has remained steady since the opener at Arizona -10.5, so they’re expected to win comfortably at home. The total has jumped a full three points from 145.5 at open to 148.5 at current.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
USC vs Arizona predictions
Predictions made on 2/5/2022 at 8:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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USC vs Arizona game info
• Location: McKale Center, Tuscon, AZ
• Date: Saturday, February 5, 2022
• Tip-off: 5:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
USC at Arizona betting preview
Injuries
USC: No key injuries to report.
Arizona: Kim Aiken Jr. F (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 6-1 in the Wildcats’ last seven games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for USC vs. Arizona.
USC vs Arizona picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Arizona has been a wrecking ball this season. How do the Wildcats inflict most of their damage? Well, they’re a well-rounded team that is sound just about everywhere — but their three biggest strengths are weaponized pace offensively, fantastic defense, and elite rebounding.
Pace should be a factor in this matchup. The Wildcats are KenPom’s No. 3-ranked team in adjusted tempo, while the Trojans check in at No. 200 in that metric. Whoever controls the tempo could be on their way to a cover in this matchup. Primarily thanks to this breakneck pace, Arizona averages 85.5 points per game — the third-highest mark nationally. USC has done a good job of controlling the pace of play throughout the season.
As for our second key factor, Arizona checks in at No. 5 in KenPom’s defensive rankings en route to allowing only 64.6 points per game. That’s a remarkably low number considering the tempo at which their games are played. USC will have a hard time finding easy buckets down low, which should keep the offensive output low. We’ll have more on this in the Over/Under section.
The last of our three factors is arguably the most important matchup, and it’s a fantastic one. Both teams are elite at cleaning up the glass — Arizona grabs the most rebounds per game in the entire country, while USC checks in at No. 4. The Trojans are the best defensive rebounding team, so limiting second chances will be key. Arizona frequently defeats an opponent’s will with weaponized pace and consistent pressure on the offensive glass — the Trojans appear well-matched to counterbalance this.
This may be the “tallest” matchup in college basketball all season. USC has the third-tallest roster nationally, while Arizona checks in one spot ahead at No. 2. Arizona’s size has completely outmatched most Pac-12 opponents. Benedict Mathurin (6-foot-7), Azuolas Tubelis (6-foot-11), Christian Koloko (7-foot-1), and Oumar Ballo (7-foot-0) could finally meet their match considering that four of USC’s five top scorers stand 6’8” or taller.
This isn’t a great scheduling spot for Arizona, who will be playing on less than 48 hours’ rest. Sure, USC is also playing on short rest, but it’s Arizona who must win by 11 points to cover this spread. It’s a potential letdown spot for the Wildcats after the UCLA win on Thursday. This will be the first time all season the Wildcats play a Thursday night and Saturday afternoon pairing of games.
The trends like the Trojans in this spot, as they’re 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games and 11-5 in their last 16 games as the underdog. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between these schools.
Given the matchup and scheduling concerns, we think USC will be able to keep this within single digits.
Prediction: USC +10.5 (-105)
Over/Under analysis
In our preview for these two teams in their Thursday matchups, we took the Under in both games. Both cashed. Despite playing at such a high tempo, Arizona has been playing to the Under for nearly a month now. After starting the season as a straight Over team, the Wildcats have now cashed Under tickets in six of their last seven games.
USC plays at just the 200th-fastest tempo, and Arizona limits opponents to only 36.9% shooting — the second-best mark nationally. While some regression may be coming for Arizona considering their extreme free-throw luck (opponents are shooting only 64.4% from the line against them), USC likely isn’t the team to make them pay. The Trojans rank just 349th nationally with a gruesome 63.7% free throw conversion rate.
USC is close to elite defensively, surrendering only 63 points per game. The Trojans’ length helps alter shots, and teams shoot only 37.5% from the field against them — the ninth-best mark nationally.
Give us the Under.
Prediction: Under 148.5 (-110)
Best bet
We see two teams that can cancel each other out in some ways. The Trojans, on paper, appear able to limit what Arizona does best. We also expect both teams to come out somewhat sleepy after playing on less than 48 hours rest, leading to sloppier-than-normal basketball.
We have two tall teams with Top-10 scoring defenses, and yet the Over is taking steam. We’ve been riding the Arizona Under train and won’t hop off until the getting isn’t good anymore.
Pick: Under 148.5 (-110)
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