The No. 19-ranked USC Trojans look to improve upon their 8-3 conference record, heading to Tempe to take on the struggling Arizona State Sun Devils
A win Thursday night would be the Trojans’ best start to a season since going 19-3 back in 1974. In the first meeting between these teams, the Sun Devils squandered an early 22-10 lead, ultimately falling 78-56 in a game in which they rostered only seven scholarship players.
Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for the USC Trojans and the Arizona State Sun Devils on Thursday, February 3.
USC vs Arizona State odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
USC is expected to take care of business on the road, sitting as -6 favorites. The total opened at 132 and quickly raised a point to 133, where it currently stands at the time of writing.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
USC vs Arizona State predictions
Predictions made on 2/3/2022 at 8:25 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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USC vs Arizona State game info
• Location: Desert Financial Arena, Tempe, AZ
• Date: Thursday, February 3, 2022
• Tip-off: 11:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2
USC at Arizona State betting preview
Injuries
USC: Joshua Morgan F (Questionable).
Arizona State: Marcus Bagley F (Out), Justin Rochelin G (Out), Jordan Williams G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Trojans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. Find more NCAA betting trends for USC vs. Arizona State.
USC vs Arizona State picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Arizona State can’t score lately. A faltering offense has led to six losses in seven games. The Sun Devils rank dead last in the Pac-12 in both shooting and scoring. Over the last 10 games, they’re averaging only 61.8 points per game.
While the offense is superlatively dreadful at 235th per KenPom, the defense has held solid, at 68th. The defense held firm for the majority of the first matchup between these teams, but the Trojans ultimately won the rebounding battle 49-24 en route to a pull-away victory. Arizona State once again fought close in a 67-56 loss to Arizona on Jan. 29 in a game that was tied at the half, but 17 Wildcats offensive rebounds sealed the deal.
Things don’t get any easier on the Sun Devils, who are right in the middle of a stretch of five straight games against ranked teams. The size disadvantage is still in play, as they simply don’t have the players at their disposal to match up with the Trojans, who are one of the tallest teams in the NCAA.
USC ranks eighth in the country in rebounding and will give Arizona State fits on the glass. The Sun Devils rank 335th in defensive rebounding, so plenty of second-chance points will be available.
The Sun Devils have proven to fight tough in the first half, but the shooting and rebounding keep catching up to them as opponents pull away in the second half. It’s hard to cover the spread when the offense ranks 333rd in scoring, 349th in shooting, and 346th from 3-point range. The Sun Devils are just 7-10-1 ATS on the season and haven’t been good in this situation, going 2-6-1 ATS as a home underdog.
The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these schools, and we see that trend continuing here. Isaiah Mobley has developed into a premier weapon in the Pac-12, while Boogie Ellis, Chevez Goodwin, and Drew Peterson all average double-digits in scoring. Arizona State lacks the scoring and size to match up with the Trojans, who should pull away late.
Prediction: USC -6 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Taking the Under in Arizona State games has been one of the most profitable ventures in college basketball this season. The Sun Devils have cashed the Under in 14 of 18 games thanks to a moribund offense and an underrated defense.
The Trojans rank 44th nationally in scoring defense, allowing only 63.5 points per game. The Trojans have plenty of length to alter shots and are sound defensively. Opponents are shooting only 37.7% from the field against the Trojans, giving USC the ninth-best shooting defense nationally.
Neither team plays at a very high pace. The Sun Devils rank 160th in KemPom’s adjusted tempo metric, while USC ranks 202. This should be a somewhat slow, methodical game in which one team struggles mightily to score. Give us the Under.
Prediction: Under 133 (-115)
Best bet
The Sun Devils have made scoring the ball seem like an arduous task, and now they face off with one of the better defenses in the country.
The Sun Devils managed only 58 points in the first matchup, and we’re struggling to come up with reasons why the offense should succeed this time around. Expect USC to lock up on defense in an ugly affair on Thursday night.
Pick: Arizona State team total Under 63.5 (-115)
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