USC vs Arizona State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Ain't No Sunshine for Devils

The last of four second-round games in the 2023 Pac-12 Tournament tips off at 11:30 pm ET as the No. 3 seed USC Trojans (22-9) square off with the No. 6 Arizona State Sun Devils (21-11). 

While USC has likely earned a spot in the NCAA Tournament already, nothing can be taken for granted. Arizona State, meanwhile, could certainly use another win or two to strengthen its resume. 

Every win is paramount when it’s March and this figures to be a great game between two motivated teams. 

Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Arizona State vs. USC on Thursday, March 9 below. 

USC vs Arizona State best odds

USC vs Arizona State picks and predictions

This game has NCAA Tournament implications for both teams. 

The Trojans aren’t exactly considered “firmly in the field” but they’re also mostly off the bubble conversation — for now. Bracket Matrix lists the Trojans as a 10-seed while being listed in the field on all 94 brackets. While they’re likely going dancing, a loss Thursday would cause more anxiety than necessary. 

The Sun Devils may still have more work to do to enter the field, but they are right on the cusp with 21 wins. Notching a victory over USC could make all the difference come selection Sunday. Currently, Bracket Matrix lists Arizona State in the field on just 15 of 94 brackets. 

The Sun Devils survived a first-round matchup with Oregon State, but it wasn’t exactly pretty. They won 63-57 against a bad Beavers team that shot just 34% from the field and connected on just three of their 18 3-point attempts. I had money on Oregon State +10 in that spot fading an inconsistent Arizona State team that has not been able to meet expectations lately. They looked sleepy in the opener, far from what one would expect from a team fiercely fighting for its tournament lives against a poor opponent. 

The Sun Devils are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall. After starting conference play at 6-1 for the program's best start since 1980-1981, this team has crashed back to Earth spectacularly. Bobby Hurley has now spent eight seasons in Tempe and has never quite been able to elevate the Sun Devils from perpetually being in the bubble conversation. 

In those eight seasons, Hurley has led his team to the Pac-12 semifinals just once. He’ll now attempt to do so with his star player at less than 100%, as second-team All-Pac-12 guard Desmond Cambridge Jr. He arrived at T-Mobile Arena yesterday with a walking boot on his left foot and proceeded to shoot just 4-14 from the field. 

USC is a legitimate contender to cut the nets down in Las Vegas. Guards matter in March, and the Trojans have two really good (and experienced!) ones in Drew Peterson and Boogie Ellis. Peterson leads the team in rebounds (6.3) and assists (4.5) while ranking second in scoring (14.1), while Ellis averaged 18.1 ppg and has taken his game to another level this season. 

The Trojans rank 34th overall in KenPom and are Top 45 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They’re a Top-10 team at defending the rim, which has become a staple under Andy Enfield. The complementary wings have found their role and have played increasingly better team basketball over the last two months of the season, as Reese Dixon-Waters, Tre White, and Kobe Johnson are all impact contributors. 

I see two teams headed in opposite directions for this spot. I’ll take USC -2.5 and would play the Trojans up to -4.5. 

My best bet: USC -2.5 (-120 at FanDuel)

USC vs Arizona State spread analysis

The spread opened at USC -3 at most locations, although -2.5 is also available at current. 

The Trojans have been a profitable team to back this season at 17-14 ATS overall. They have been a good bet against winning teams, going 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 

USC has also performed well outside of Los Angeles, posting a 9-5 ATS record in games played away from home this season. The Trojans are 12-8 ATS in conference games this season — a stark contrast to the Sun Devils’ mark of 7-14 ATS. 

Arizona State is just 14-17-1 ATS this season. After a strong start to the season, finding just four covers in its last 15 games is evidence that this team is not meeting expectations. If the expectation is that Arizona State is on a similar level as USC, then I disagree. The Trojans are a bonafide contender in this conference, whereas Arizona State is scraping by just to remain relevant. This team has been in free fall for two months now. 

USC’s defense ranks seventh in the country in field goal defense at 39% and should be able to control an Arizona State team that shoots just 41.8% (315th nationally). USC walls off the rim, ranking sixth in near-proximity defense (Haslametrics). This will force the Sun Devils to convert from behind the arc — a tall order for this unit. They’re a very poor shooting team from deep, ranking 329th in 3-point percentage (31.3%). 

USC vs Arizona State Over/Under analysis

The total is currently set between 138.5 and 140 depending on the book. I would anticipate the number to settle in the lower range, so if you like the Under then I would pounce as early as possible. 

Arizona State simply can’t shoot the ball. The Sun Devils combined with Oregon State for just 120 total points in the opening round and now face a USC defense that is well-positioned to limit what they want to do offensively. They have a habit of resorting to pick-up style basketball and chucking up bad shots when things aren’t going their way. Unless they can consistently hit tough shots in this matchup, things could get sloppy.

The Sun Devils like to crash the glass offensively, ranking 84th in offensive rebounds per game. USC is prone to allowing opponents to crash the offensive glass, ranking 356th in offensive rebounds allowed per game. This is likely what the Sun Devils will be reliant on to score points — hardly a foolproof plan. 

I’ve been somewhat disrespectful of Arizona State in this preview thus far, so let me acknowledge that the defense is pretty good. The Sun Devils rank 29th in defensive efficiency and 12th in field goal defense (39.4%). 

There are reasons to expect a limited offensive output for both sides. I side with the Under. 

USC vs Arizona State betting trend to know

Arizona State is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for USC vs. Arizona State.

USC vs Arizona State game info

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