USC vs Colorado Odds, Picks and Predictions: Under-Whelming Matchup

The USC Trojans (19-8) look to strengthen their NCAA Tournament resume with a road trip to Boulder. 

Tad Boyle’s Colorado Buffaloes (15-13) squad has been in a world of hurt, threatening to finish with a sub-.500 record in Pac-12 play for the first time in five years. 

The Trojans appear to be the slightly superior side, although the team’s road struggles are one reason for doubt.

Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for USC vs. Colorado on Thursday, February 23 to see why we like the total for this matchup.

USC vs Colorado best odds

USC vs Colorado picks and predictions

USC is coming off a successful week in which it swept the Bay Area schools at home. Boogie Ellis was named the most recent Pac-12 Player of the Week, his second time winning the award this season. He dropped a career-high 33 points on Stanford and added 22 against Cal to end the week with a whopping 55 points scored. His wingman, Drew Peterson, is also in fine form after setting a career-high with 30 points against the Golden Bears. 

Andy Enfield’s squad has found its groove in Pac-12 play, sitting in third behind conference heavyweights UCLA and Arizona. The Trojans have an 11-5 record in conference games, but playing on the road has been a challenge — all five of those losses have occurred in away games. 

However, things haven’t been going well in Boulder. At 15-13, the Buffaloes are likely out of NCAA Tournament consideration barring a victorious Pac-12 Tournament run. They’ve been pretty bad against the spread, going just 11-16-1 ATS. 

It’s been five years since Colorado finished below .500 in Pac-12 play, but that streak is in jeopardy this season, as the Buffs have just a 7-10 conference record. 

I’ll target the total for my best bet instead of a side. The Buffaloes are 16-12 to the Under this season, and are far better defensively (19th in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom) than they are offensively (136th). 

They have had serious shooting woes from behind the arc, ranking just 292nd in made threes per game (6.4) and 296th in three-point shooting (31.9%). This offense prefers to try to get good looks inside, ranking 10th in near-proximity attempts per 100 trips up the court (Haslametrics). This plays right into what USC’s defense does best, as the Trojans rank 27th in near-proximity defense. 

The Trojans tend to play in low-scoring games against tougher competition, going 11-2 to the Under in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. 

The first time these teams played, they combined for just 129 points in a 68-61 USC win. The total currently resides more than 10 points above that line. Give me the Under at 141.5 — which I’d play down to 137.5. 

My best bet: Under 141.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

USC vs Colorado spread analysis

As of early Thursday morning, the Buffaloes reside as -2.5 favorites across the board.

The advanced numbers don’t see a lot separating these teams, as USC checks in at 48th in KenPom while Colorado is right behind at 52nd. The betting market has opened the Buffs as a narrow favorite thanks to the homecourt advantage. 

The Trojans have been on a hot streak, covering the spread in 11 of their last 16 games. Ellis and Peterson are a tremendous guard duo and give this team a chance in any game it plays. They are the better team, but the concern in this spot involves playing on the road in Boulder. 

Looking at the trends, the road team has actually fared pretty well — covering the spread in 10 of the last 14 meetings between these two schools. 

Colorado is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall and simply hasn’t been a very good basketball team this season. The offense lacks consistent scoring options and often looks uninspired. 

If picking a side, I’d take USC on the moneyline at +110 or greater. 

USC vs Colorado Over/Under analysis

The total opened between 140.5 and 141.5 at most books. I’d be surprised if this one doesn’t move at least a tad downward with some money coming in on the Under.

If there’s a concern about this total, it’s the projected tempo. Colorado has been playing with a bit of pace this season, ranking 72nd in adjusted tempo (KenPom). USC (124th) doesn’t exactly set the world on fire with its pace, but the Trojans aren’t stuck in the mud either.

Still, I’m not expecting the efficiency to be great in this one.

I’m of the opinion that USC’s defense is a tad underrated by most metrics. The Trojans rank 12th in field goal defense, limiting opponents to just 39.2% shooting. Rim defender Joshua Morgan returned to the lineup against Stanford and played 22 minutes, which is huge news considering he leads the Pac-12 with 2.3 blocks per game. Five-star big man Vincent Iwuchuckwu has played just 11 games this season but continues to ramp up to speed, giving this team two bonafide big men and rim protectors for the first time this season. 

The Trojans do struggle a bit defending the arc (192nd in 3-point defense — 33.9%), but the Buffaloes haven’t been able to can triples with any consistency this year. 

The Trojans are decent offensively, but I’m not expecting an onslaught of points on the road against a tough Colorado defense. In its last five road games, USC has scored more than 66 points just once. The Buffs allow just 66.1 ppg, ranking 79th in field goal defense (42%) while ranking as a Top-20 unit according to most advanced metrics. 

USC vs Colorado betting trend to know

The Under is 11-2 in USC’s last 13 games against a team with a winning straight-up record. Find more college basketball betting trends for USC vs. Colorado.

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