We're in for a fun game when Kansas State and USC meet tonight at T-Mobile Arena. The two schools will close out the opening college basketball odds slate in a game that is part of the Hall of Fame series.
Taking a little of the luster off this game is the absence of Bronny James for the Trojans. The son of LeBron suffered a shocking cardiac event over the summer, which has left his status for the season up for the air.
However, outside of that, there is still plenty of star-power on display for the L.A. school in the form of returning phenom Boogie Ellis and the debut of the No. 1 overall guard recruit Isaiah Collier. They'll meet the Wildcats, who will come into the season hungry to replicate their Elite Eight run last year.
What's the best bet in this matchup? Find out in my college basketball picks for USC vs. Kansas State on Monday, November 6.
USC vs Kansas State best odds
USC vs Kansas State picks and predictions
I'll say again: This one is going to be fun. We have two teams who put the ball in the bucket and love to speed the game up. We also have a coach in Kansas State's Tang who isn't shying away from telling his team to shoot early and often.
"I got hot, and my teammates were looking for me," North Texas guard transfer Tylor Perry said. "They weren't telling me to stop shooting. Coach Tang wasn't telling me to stop shooting. When you have guys around you who want to see you win, it is super easy to have games like that."
It's that thought process that I'm taking into this game, and grabbing the Over 146 is my best bet — just short of my projection of 147.5.
The addition of Tylor Perry to Kansas State is noteworthy. He has the potential to become one of the best 3-point shooters in program history for the Wildcats and undoubtedly will be given the green light much of the year.
Over the summer, in three exhibition games, Perry made 18 of 33 threes, including a game in which he drilled nine. That's problematic for a USC team that has had issues in the past defending spot-up shooters — ranking in the Bottom 20% of basketball defending them a season ago.
The other face that will be thrust into a big-time role for the Wildcats this season is former Mississippi State transfer guard Cam Carter. Tang has implored him to take over the massive void left by the departed Markquis Nowel a year ago. How fast he can and how well he can will decide a lot for this team.
My expectations are high. The opponent needs to be considered, but Carter looked confident driving to the rim with 20 points in the Wildcats' last exhibition. His development being further along than some think is another reason why I suspect this total is undervalued.
On the other side of the ball is USC and an offense that could be very explosive. It enters this season with a Top 25 offensive efficiency rating from KenPom and the expectation of wanting to play faster with so much athleticism on the court.
Boogie Ellis is a star, we know that. His time with the Trojans has likely not been precisely what he expected, but this is still a player who averaged over 17 points on an NCAA Tournament team last season.
In this matchup, Ellis should have some solid success getting downhill against the Kansas State defense, which was poor in pick-and-roll defense last season. In addition, it'll be without one of its primary rim protectors to start the year, Nae'Qwan Tomlin, who was suspended over the summer for an off-the-court issue.
With him, the Wildcats had a defense that allowed a 5% higher field goal percentage at the rim than the rest of the country: Without him, this issue could be exploited even more. And that's all before mentioning freshman star Isaiah Collier, who has all the potential to be one of the best guards in the country.
These offenses will undoubtedly finish in the Top 100 of tempo and have explosive guards. As long as there's not much offseason rust, I expect plenty of offensive fireworks here.
My best bet: Over 145.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
USC vs Kansas State same-game parlay
Over 145.5
Perry Over 15.5 pts
Ellis Over 17.5 pts
30% boost available
The first leg of things is Perry Over 15.5 points. USC had trouble last season at times defending on the perimeter, finishing third to last in the Pac-12 in spot-up shooting. Perry is a prolific 3-point threat who could single-handedly get this from beyond the arc.
The last leg of Ellis. I'm a little iffy about what the Trojans will accomplish this season, but I'm on the Ellis train. He has a great matchup tonight against a team that could be soft around the rim to start the season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Best college basketball bonuses
All Users
64% boost for one CBB bet today
e.g. -110 BOOSTS to +149! Claim Now
All Users
30% boost for 3+ leg CBB parlay
e.g. +200 BOOSTS to +260! Claim Now
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
USC vs Kansas State spread and Over/Under analysis
Taking a side here is difficult.
This USC team has a chance to be very good with two NBA talents in the backcourt, but the range of outcomes for its season is fairly broad. It needs to sure up a defense that struggled at times last season and finished just about average defensive efficiency when facing Top 100 teams.
Kansas State can exploit that, and there is not anything egregious about saying it has a coaching advantage here. However, it remains to be determined if it has enough talent — especially without Tomlin. I laid the Wildcats +3 here earlier in the week for a half unit. It has since moved to 2.5, which is no longer playable.
The Over is my best bet. It has taken action all week and, after opening up at 144.5 earlier in the week, has risen as high as 146 in some spots. Bettors agree with my analysis of this matchup. These two teams have guards who know how to score, and neither defense should be expected to come out of the gates very impressively.
USC vs Kansas State betting trend to know
Kansas State finished last season winning eight of its last ten games. Find more college basketball betting trends for USC vs. Kansas State.
USC vs Kansas State game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Monday, November 6, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
USC vs Kansas State key injuries
Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the 
to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.
