The No. 20 ranked Maryland Terrapins host the USC Trojans in NCAA basketball action on Thursday night.
The Terps have five players averaging at least 12.0 points per game led by Derik Queen and my USC vs. Maryland predictions expect another big game from the freshman.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this Big Ten showdown on February 20.
USC vs Maryland prediction
My best bet
Derik Queen Over 8.5 rebounds (-130 at bet365)
My analysis
It seems like half the teams in the AP Top 25 have a freshman playing a big role and for the Maryland Terrapins that player is Derik Queen. The five-star recruit has lived up to his billing by leading the Terps with 16.0 points per game while adding 8.8 rebounds per game.
The 6-foot-10, 246-pound center made his college debut in style by racking up 22 points and 20 boards against Manhattan. He was a bit up-and-down earlier in the season but has become more consistent during conference play.
Queen is averaging 10.4 rpg over his last 10 contests and should have a big game against an undersized USC Trojans frontcourt tonight. The Trojans are 227th in the country in rebounding rate (49.1%) with that number plummeting to 42.9% over their last four games.
In addition, USC is outside the Top 300 in 3-point rate (34%) while the Terps attempt threes at just a 34.1% rate in Big Ten play. Field goal attempts from deep usually result in longer rebounds that tend to be gathered up by wings and guards. But with both teams preferring to shoot close to the basket, there should be more available boards for the guys in the paint.
With Queen grabbing at least 11 boards in five of his last six contests, hammer the Over 8.5 rebounds for him here.
USC vs Maryland same-game parlay (SGP)
Derik Queen Over 8.5 rebounds
Over 152.5
Alt Spread Maryland -7.5
Maryland is 17th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 24th in average offensive possession length which has led to plenty of shootouts. The Terps are 9-3 O/U in their last 12 games while the Trojans have cashed the Over in all six of their road contests this season.
The Terps are 10th in the country in points per game (83.5) while shooting 57.6% from 2-point range at home. They should score at will inside against a USC squad that is 273rd in opponent 2PT% (53.4%) with that number ticking up 56.4% in away games.
The Trojans are 282nd at defending in transition per ShotQualityBets while sitting outside the Top 300 in defending the rim. That will make it tough for them to slow down the Terps who are 29th in transition frequency and 21st at attacking the rim efficiency.
I'm reluctant to lay 10.5 points on Maryland against a USC side that is 10-6 ATS in its last 16 games and 4-2 ATS (with three upset victories) on the road. However, Maryland's last four wins have come by at least eight points while seven of USC's previous 10 losses have come by 8+ points. That has me taking the alternate spread of -7.5 in this SGP.
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USC vs Maryland AI prediction
With Maryland’s strong home-court advantage (15-1) and top players like Julian Reese (13.8 ppg) and Derik Queen (16.0 ppg), they are favored to win tonight. The Terrapins have been solid on both ends, especially at home, while USC has struggled on the road.
Expect Maryland to come out on top, though USC's offense led by Desmond Claude (16.0 ppg) could keep the game competitive. Given both teams’ scoring abilities, this game has the potential to be a high-scoring affair.
USC vs Maryland score prediction
Maryland 80, USC 70
Maryland covers the spread, and the game goes Over the set total of 154 points.
Analysis and score prediction courtesy of ChatGPT.
USC vs Maryland odds
USC vs Maryland live odds
USC vs Maryland opening odds
- Spread: USC +11.5 (-110) | Maryland -11.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: USC +500 | Maryland -700
- Over/Under: Over 154 (-110) | Under 154 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
USC vs Maryland betting trend to know
The Trojans are 18-6 to the Over in their last 24 games while the Terrapins are 16-8 O/U in their previous 24 contests. Find more college basketball betting trends for USC vs. Maryland.
How to watch USC vs Maryland
| Location | XFINITY Center, College Park, MD |
| Date | Thursday, 2-20-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
USC vs Maryland key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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