USC vs Oregon State Picks and Predictions: Trojans to Handle Business on the Road
Two teams that reached last year’s Elite Eight square off Thursday night in Corvallis as the No. 16 USC Trojans head to Gill Coliseum to face the Oregon State Beavers.
It’s been a tale of two teams headed in separate directions since last season. USC continues their hunt for a better NCAA Tournament seed, sitting at 12-4 in conference play. The Beavers have bottomed out, losing every game that they’ve played since the calendar flipped to 2022.
Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for USC vs. Oregon State on Thursday, February 24.
USC vs Oregon State odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
USC is a double-digit favorite on the road. The Trojans opened -11 and are currently sitting at -10 across most books. The total opened at 140 and dropped half a point to 139.5 as of Thursday morning.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
USC vs Oregon State predictions
Predictions made on 2/24/2022 at 8:10 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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USC vs Oregon State game info
• Location: Gill Coliseum, Corvallis, OR
• Date: Thursday, February 24, 2022
• Tip-off: 11:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2
USC at Oregon State betting preview
Injuries
USC: Isaiah Mobley F (Probable).
Oregon State: Warith Alatishe F (Questionable), Tre’ Williams G (Questionable), Isaiah Johnson F (Doubtful), Xzavier Malone-Key G (Out), Rodrigue Andela F (Out), Chol Marial C (Out), Gianni Hunt G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Beavers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for USC vs. Oregon State.
USC vs Oregon State picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
It’s difficult to overstate just how much Oregon State is struggling currently. The Beavers haven’t won a game in the year 2022, having dropped twelve straight since a win over Utah on Dec. 30. It’s not the follow-up that Wayne Tinkle and company had in mind after last year’s surprising Elite Eight run.
The Beavers are down to No. 237 in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency rankings, checking in at 167th offensively and 297th defensively. They haven’t been winning games or covering the spread, going just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. Oregon State has been one of the least profitable teams in all of college basketball from a betting standpoint, going just 6-18-1 ATS.
The Beavers rank 291st in scoring offense (66.7 points per game) and 324th in scoring defense (75.8 ppg). They struggle to put the ball in the hoop but struggle even more at guarding opponents. Warith Altishe, the team’s top player, is considered questionable. Leading scorer Jarod Lucas (13.0 ppg) has been the go-to guy but is shooting just 40.4% from the field.
The Trojans should have no trouble scoring on this lackluster Beavers defense. Isaiah Mobley is one of the best big men in the country, averaging 14.4 points and 8.3 rebounds. Drew Peterson, Chevez Goodwin, and Boogie Ellis all average double-digit points per contest and are a threat to shred a Beavers defense ranking 339th in opponent field goal percentage.
USC has won four straight games and six of its last seven. The Trojans are 28th in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency, ranking 38th offensively and 43rd defensively. They’ve been profitable on the road, going 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games. The Beavers, meanwhile, are just 3-10 ATS at home on the season. We don’t think the home-court advantage will be worth enough points to keep Oregon State in this game.
Oregon State has little to no momentum and now must face the No. 16 team in the country. This is USC’s game to win as they choose, so we’re backing them to roll into Corvallis and come away with the cover.
Prediction: USC -10 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
It takes two teams to hit an Over. We can expect USC to have success against this miserable Beavers defense, but will that be enough to push this one over the total of 139.5?
The Beavers shoot only 43.8% from the field, ranking 207th nationally. They face a tough Trojans defense allowing only 63.7 points per game while possessing the fifth-best field shooting defense in the country. Opponents are shooting only 37.5% from the field against USC, so offense may be hard to come by for the Beavers.
Neither team plays with a particular sense of urgency. The Trojans rank 222nd in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric, while the Beavers check-in at 208th.
Oregon State has great difficulty scoring the ball and will be playing a near-elite defense with plenty of size to alter shots. There shouldn’t be a lot of tempo in this matchup, which helps point us toward the Under.
Prediction: Under 139.5 (-110)
Best bet
There’s no way that we can play Oregon State in this spot. The Beavers are 3-22 overall this season and have completely cratered only one year removed from making the Elite Eight.
Oregon State is only 6-18-1 ATS on the season and now must host a Top-25 opponent. If the Trojans come to play, they should take care of business on the road.
Pick: USC -10 (-110)
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