The Rutgers Scarlet Knights may be the No. 11 seed in the Big Ten tournament, but they’re a team that no one wants to face.
The USC Trojans don’t get to avoid the Scarlet Knights or their one-two punch of Dylan Harper and Ace Baley.
The Scarlet Knights' ceiling is just too high to ignore, which is why my USC vs. Rutgers predictions and college basketball picks on Wednesday, March 12, favor them outright.
USC vs Rutgers prediction
Who will win USC vs Rutgers?
Game models give the nod to USC in a tight contest, but betting markets are moving toward Rutgers. I like the Scarlet Knights to ride their star power to the second round of the Big Ten tournament.
My best bet
Rutgers moneyline (+100 at bet365)
My analysis
This spread opened with the USC Trojans as 1-point neutral site favorites and has bounced back and forth over the fence, with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights going from +1 to -1 and back again.
Game projections all sided with the Trojans, but just barely. Most models agreed with the initial opener, with USC edging Rutgers by no more than three points. However, the Scarlet Knights are a very tough team to wrangle, simply due to the star power potential.
Freshmen Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey are pegged to go No. 2 and No. 3 in the 2025 NBA Draft, with those first-year phenoms averaging a collective 36.8 points — 48% of the team’s total offensive output. That amount of pro-ready talent can take over a game and upset any opponent… if the planets align.
Looking at their record, the Knights were the most inconsistent team in the Big Ten. One week, they were taking Alabama to the brink and the next they were faceplanting against Ohio State. Since the start of conference play, they’ve won back-to-back games only twice and suffered through multiple two and three-game losing skids.
It got to a point in mid-February where coach Steve Pikiell’s squad was on the outside of the Big Ten tournament cutoff, needing to finish inside the Top 15 to qualify. That threat seemed to spark life into Rutgers, which looked strong in the final five games of the schedule.
The Scarlet Knights went 3-2 straight up and 4-1 against the spread in that home stretch. After sitting in the bottom half of the conference metrics for most of the season, Rutgers shot up to second in offensive rating during this stretch, including a 95-85 shootout win against Southern California on Feb. 23.
"These guys have gotten better," Pikiell told the media after Sunday’s win over Minnesota. "If you throw away the Purdue game, down the stretch here, we’ve played some pretty good basketball. Up three seconds at Michigan, we’d be on a really nice little run here going in."
The Trojans, on the other hand, don’t have the same momentum.
USC lugs a 1-6 SU record in its final seven games into Gainbridge Fieldhouse, with defense being its biggest bugaboo. Opponents scored at least 82 points in five of those six losses and USC’s defensive rating has slumped to the second worst in the Big Ten.
The Trojans have had trouble winning away from home during their first year in the conference, with all that travel taxing USC for a 3-7 SU record in true road games and a 3-9 SU overall mark away from home (4-8 ATS).
This trip to Indianapolis marks another travel spot for the Trojans, who finished conference play with four of their final six games on the road and will now play away for the fifth time in 20 days.
Southern Cal already looked worn out in its season finale, getting squashed 90-63 despite a short jaunt to UCLA last Saturday. After USC allowed the Bruins to score 42 points in the paint and shoot better than 61% from the floor, head coach Eric Musselman criticized his team for their lack of motivation — not just in a key conference game but a rivalry matchup.
Keeping pace with Rutgers' stars could be asking a lot of USC after the grind of the home stretch. The Scarlet Knights have a much better mindset, momentum, and too high a ceiling to ignore.
USC vs Rutgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Rutgers moneyline
Dylan Harper 15+ points
Ace Bailey 7+ rebounds
The Scarlet Knights look at this tournament as their "second season" and have the talent to give any team trouble.
Dylan Harper is projected for 15-plus points, with some models on the other side of 20. He scored 25 against USC last time.
Ace Bailey is feast or famine on the glass. He had just three rebounds versus USC last time, but both teams shot so well. Projections call for at least seven boards tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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USC vs Rutgers odds
USC vs Rutgers live odds
USC vs Rutgers opening odds
- Spread: USC -1 (-110) | Rutgers +1 (-110)
- Moneyline: USC -110 | Rutgers -110
- Over/Under: Over 154.5 (-110) | Under 154.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
USC vs Rutgers betting trend to know
USC is 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS away from home this season, including going 0-2 SU/ATS on neutral courts. Find more college basketball betting trends for USC vs. Rutgers.
How to watch USC vs Rutgers
| Location | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-12-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
USC vs Rutgers key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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