It's a rivalry renewed when UCLA hosts conference mate USC for the season-finale.
Bruins head coach Mick Cronin called the win in the first matchup last season a "turning point" for UCLA's season earlier this week. Then, his team broke a losing streak and defeated the Trojans by multiple possessions. They'll look for this matchup to have a similar effect today and, in the process, build upon a tournament resume.
Meanwhile, USC hopes to play spoiler and build momentum before next week's conference tournament.
Read on for my USC vs. UCLA predictions and college basketball picks for Saturday, March 8.
USC vs UCLA prediction
My best bet
Tyler Bilodeau 15+ points (-125 at bet365)
My analysis
If you've read me this season, you know that we've gone to this well a few times, and you'd also know that it's been a profitable endeavor.
Tyler Bilodeau has been one of the more dynamic bigs in the Big Ten this season and has flown under the radar nationally. He'll come into this game hitting this number in two of his last three games and riding hot off a 19-point outburst against Northwestern. Tonight, he should enjoy one of the things we've liked to target throughout the season.
The USC Trojans have had issues all season, so their record is what it is. One of their most significant issues is on the defensive end, explicitly defending bigs when cutting to the basket. With an entire season in data in front of us, the Trojans have allowed 1.03 points per possession and cuts to the basket from frontcourt players. That puts them in the 30 percentile of college basketball. That's a problem against Bilodeau. He feasts there.
Frontcourt cuts to the basketball are one of the fundamental aspects of the UCLA Bruins offense, and this season, they've ran it so well because of Bilodeau. From an efficiency perspective, the Bruins rank in the 94th percentile in scoring in such sets. Again, he's the major reason why, and given the matchup, you'd expect him to deliver.
The common theme in these plays has been the angle above. Littered throughout the Big Ten are flat-footed bigs who struggle to guard in space. "Tweener" type players who could really play the four or the 5 are usually the best types of players to attack this. Bilodeau fits this to a T, and it's why he's had so much success this season. That doesn't change today.
USC vs UCLA same-game parlay (SGP)
Tyler Bilodeau 15+ points
Under 143
The non-correlation aspect of this same-game parlay is far too much to pass up. We paired the Under with our best bet. My model's projection of 141.5 has a slight value, but it's difficult for me to see how USC has much success scoring.
The Trojans' offense is heavily built around players beating their defenders off the dribble and scoring via isolation-style plays. Few teams are better at stopping in the country than UCLA, which has held opponents to .78 points per possession in isolation. Along with that, we should get a reasonably slow tempo. I'll take it at this price point.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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USC vs UCLA odds
USC vs UCLA live odds
USC vs UCLA opening odds
- Spread: USC +9.5 (-110) | UCLA -9.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: USC +325 | UCLA -425
- Over/Under: Over 143.5 | Under 143.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
USC vs UCLA betting trend to know
USC has hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 33 games (+11.00 Units / 30% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for USC vs. UCLA.
How to watch USC vs UCLA
| Location | Pauley Pavilion, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Saturday, 3-8-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
USC vs UCLA key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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